美國(guó)國(guó)債不愁賣 沒有中國(guó)還有日本中國(guó)一直在促使其2.5萬億美元的外匯儲(chǔ)備向美元之外多元化，部分人士開始擔(dān)心，中國(guó)減少購(gòu)買美國(guó)國(guó)債會(huì)導(dǎo)致美國(guó)利率上升，從而使美國(guó)政府舉債更困難。

　　但是周三日本在外匯市場(chǎng)對(duì)美元的購(gòu)買表明，中國(guó)的外匯儲(chǔ)備多元化政策實(shí)際上也許會(huì)導(dǎo)致對(duì)美國(guó)國(guó)債的更多需求。

　　情況是這樣的：中國(guó)在促進(jìn)外匯儲(chǔ)備向美國(guó)國(guó)債等以美元面值的資產(chǎn)以外多元化時(shí)，會(huì)購(gòu)買以其最大的貿(mào)易伙伴國(guó)的貨幣為面值的債券。這些貿(mào)易伙伴不希望失去自己的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力，反過來就會(huì)購(gòu)買美元以保持本國(guó)貨幣處于較低水平。

　　作為推動(dòng)多元化的一部分，中國(guó)也是日?qǐng)A的主要購(gòu)買者，根據(jù)日本財(cái)務(wù)省（Japanese Ministry of Finance），中國(guó)今年迄今已搶購(gòu)了價(jià)值270億美元的日?qǐng)A。分析師說中國(guó)的購(gòu)買行為使得已經(jīng)高漲的日?qǐng)A再度走強(qiáng)。

　　現(xiàn)在，日本面臨削弱日?qǐng)A的壓力，轉(zhuǎn)而購(gòu)買美元，并很可能以美國(guó)國(guó)債的形式購(gòu)買。還不清楚日本需要購(gòu)買多少美元才能阻止日?qǐng)A繼續(xù)升值，但很有可能高于中國(guó)為促進(jìn)多元化購(gòu)買的日?qǐng)A。前事不忘后事之師，日本在2003年到2004年的上一次匯市干預(yù)中投入了3200億美元。根據(jù)國(guó)際清算銀行（Bank for International Settlements）的統(tǒng)計(jì)，當(dāng)下的匯市中美元和日?qǐng)A之間每日成交額為5680億美元，與上次干預(yù)相比增加了73%.

　　這種狀況并非日本獨(dú)有。中國(guó)還購(gòu)買了韓國(guó)的韓圓。韓國(guó)經(jīng)常干預(yù)匯市，購(gòu)買美元以避免韓圓上升太快，這又抵消了中國(guó)為了外儲(chǔ)多元化對(duì)韓圓的購(gòu)買。

　　Don't Worry About China,Japan Will Finance U.S. Debt China has been diversifying its $2.5 trillion reserves away from the dollar,causing some to worry that less Chinese buying of Treasurys would cause U.S. interest rates to rise and make it more difficult for the government to borrow.

　　But Japan's dollar buying in currency markets Wednesday shows Chinese reserve diversification might actually lead to even more demand for Treasurys.

　　Here's how. As China diversifies out of U.S. dollar-denominated assets such as Treasurys,it is buying debt denominated in the currencies of some of its biggest trading partners. Not wanting to lose competitiveness themselves,those trading partners in turn buy dollars to keep their currencies cheap.

　　As part of the diversification push,China has been a major buyer of yen,snapping up $27 billion in yen so far this year according to Japanese Ministry of Finance. Analysts say China's buying has helped an already strong yen get stronger.

　　Now,Japan,feeling under pressure to weaken its currency,turned around and bought dollars,most likely in the form of Treasurys. It isn't clear exactly how much dollar buying Japan will have to do to protect the yen from getting stronger,but it's likely to more than offset China's diversification into the yen. If the past is a guide,Japan spent $320 billion in its last intervention from 2003 to 2004. And this time the currency markets are 73% far larger,with $568 billion dollar-yen trading a day,according to the Bank for International Settlements.

　　Japan is not alone in this phenomenon. China has also bought South Korea's currency,the won. And South Korea routinely intervenes in currency markets,buying dollars to keep its currency from rising too quickly,again offsetting China's move out of the dollar.