Economists in the latest Wall Street Journal survey see an end to the recession by autumn， but say it will take years for the economy to fully recover.

　　在最新一次《華爾街日報》調(diào)查中，經(jīng)濟學家預計經(jīng)濟會在秋天結(jié)束衰退，但認為經(jīng)濟完全恢復還需數(shù)年時間。

　　On average， the 52 economists who participated in the wurvey project that the recession will end in August. They expect gross domestic product to contract at a seasonally adjusted annalized peace in the current quarter， compared with the drop recorded in the first quarter. Slow growth is expected to return by the third quarter， with the economy expanding more than 2% in the first half of 2010.

　　平均而言，參與調(diào)查的52位經(jīng)濟學家預計衰退將于8月份結(jié)束。他們預計，經(jīng)季節(jié)因素調(diào)整，第二季度美國國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值（GDP）折合成年率將收縮，今年第一季度為下降。他們預計，經(jīng)濟會在第三季度恢復緩慢增長，明年上半年增速會超過2%.

　　The survey was conducted before the Commerce Department's report this week that retail sales fell in April from the previous month， which left some economists questioning whether consumer spending is ready to rebound. Initial unemployment claims released Thursday brought more gloomy news： Seasonally adjusted claims in the week ended May 9 increased 32，000 to 637，000 from a revised 605，000 in the preceding week. Most of the losses can be chalked up to Chrysler LLC's 27，000 layoffs following its April 30 bankruptcy filing.

　　在此次調(diào)查之后，美國商務部本周公布4月份零售額較上月下滑；這一數(shù)據(jù)促使一些經(jīng)濟學家懷疑消費者支出是否已經(jīng)做好回升準備。周四公布的首次申請失業(yè)救濟人數(shù)帶來了更多黯淡消息：經(jīng)季節(jié)因素調(diào)整，5月9日當周首次申請失業(yè)救濟人數(shù)增加3.2萬人，至63.7萬人；此前一周數(shù)據(jù)修正后為60.5萬人。克萊斯勒在4月30日申請破產(chǎn)后宣布裁員2.7萬人是上周首次申請失業(yè)救濟人數(shù)增加的主要原因。

　　Separately， the April producer price index， which gauges prices at the wholesale level， rose driven by growth in food prices. The core price index， which excludes food and energy， was up .

　　此外，4月份生產(chǎn)者價格指數(shù)（PPI）上升，主要受食品價格上漲推動。不包括食品和能源的核心價格指數(shù)上漲。

　　Even before the new data were released， economists were expecting a major pullback in consumption. Nearly three-quarters of survey respondents saidthe recent increase in the US saving rate is the beginning of a major behavioral shift.

　　即便在新數(shù)據(jù)公布前，經(jīng)濟學家也預見到了消費的顯著收縮。將近四分之三的調(diào)查受訪者表示，近期美國儲蓄率的上升標志著一個重大消費行為轉(zhuǎn)變的開始。

　　A consumer retrenchment is one factor that is likely to make any recovery a long slog. The economists on average expect the unemployment rate to climb to by the end of the year， with two million more jobs lost over the next 12 months， even as growth returns to the economy.

　　消費者節(jié)儉之風是導致經(jīng)濟復蘇可能漫長艱難的一個因素。經(jīng)濟學家平均預計，今年年底前失業(yè)率會攀升至，未來12個月還會失去200萬個工作崗位，即便經(jīng)濟重新開始增長。

　　the depth of the downturn means it will take years to eat up the slack created by the recession. To gain back ground lost and being down unemplyment， the economy has to grow by more than its potential rate. Nearly half of the economists said it will take three to four years to close the output gap， while more than a quarter say it will take five to six years.

　　經(jīng)濟下滑的嚴重程度意味著，要消除衰退帶來的影響還需要數(shù)年時間。為了奪回失地，壓低失業(yè)率，經(jīng)濟就必須以超出潛力的水平增長。將近半數(shù)的經(jīng)濟學家表示，消除產(chǎn)出缺口還需要三到四年時間；而超過四分之一的經(jīng)濟學家認為，這個過程需要五到六年時間。

　　'We're going through a transition in the economy back to a more normal share of consumer spending relative to GDP，' said Pual Kasriel of The Northern Trust Corp. 'This is a very deep and defining recession that is going to lead to a transformed US economy， and there transformations don't take place overnight.'

　　北方信托公司的卡斯里爾說，我們將經(jīng)歷經(jīng)濟的一個過渡期，消費支出相對于GDP的比例將重新回到一個更為正常的水平。這是一次非常嚴重而關鍵性的衰退，會推動美國經(jīng)濟進行轉(zhuǎn)型，而這些轉(zhuǎn)型不會一蹴而就。

　　The survey respondents were more positive about the financial sector. A third of the economists said the recently completed bank stress tests were a well-done and very constructive process， while half said they were helpful even if they understand risks. Last week， the Federal Reserve and Treasury Department released the results of tests to gauge how well banks' balance sheets would withstand the recession. Meanwhile， more than three-quarters said President Barack Obama's administration won't have to go back to Congress for more money to aid banks.

　　調(diào)查受訪者對金融行業(yè)較為樂觀。三分之一的經(jīng)濟學家表示，近期完成的壓力測試做的不錯，是項非常有建設性的工作；不過有半數(shù)受訪者說，即便測試低估了風險，也會有所幫助。美國聯(lián)邦儲備委員會和財政部上周公布了壓力測試結(jié)果，評估銀行的資產(chǎn)負債狀況能否抵御經(jīng)濟衰退。與此同時，超過四分之三的人表示，奧巴馬政府不需要再次向國會尋求資金救助銀行。

　　Half the respondents said that fiscal and montary stimulus has provided the basis for a sustainable receovery. Twenty-seven percent said it has boosted the economy， but they had doubts about sustainability. 'The Fed has the big guns and has effectively averted a depression or a much more severe recession.'said Diane Swonk of Mesirow Financial.

　　半數(shù)受訪者說，政府的財政和貨幣刺激措施已經(jīng)為經(jīng)濟持續(xù)復蘇奠定了基礎。有27%的人說，這些措施已經(jīng)給經(jīng)濟帶來了提振，但他們懷疑成效能否持久。Mesirow Financial的斯旺克表示，美聯(lián)儲起了重大作用，它已經(jīng)有效避免了經(jīng)濟陷入蕭條或是一場非常嚴重的衰退。

　　The role of the Fed in stablizing the market has boosted the outlook for Chairman Ben Bernanke. On avrage， the economists say there is a 72% chance that Mr. Obama will reappoint the Fed chairman in 2010. 'If there's a hero to this piece， it's Ben Bernanke，' Mr. Kasriel said.

　　美聯(lián)儲在穩(wěn)定市場方面發(fā)揮的作用也給該機構(gòu)主席伯南克的前景帶來了幫助。平均而言，經(jīng)濟學家認為伯南克有72%的可能性在2010年獲得連任?？ㄋ估餇栒f，如果這其中有個英雄的話，那就是伯南克。