美國(guó)就業(yè)情況報(bào)告好于預(yù)期，同時(shí)有跡象顯示制造業(yè)也開(kāi)始恢復(fù)活力，經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們由此相信經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇即將到來(lái)。但一個(gè)大問(wèn)題依然存在：復(fù)蘇是否可持續(xù)。摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的伯納（Richard Berner）和格瑞勞（David Greenlaw）在不久前的一份研究報(bào)告中列出了經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)的三大要素。

　　1. 信貸市場(chǎng)日漸放松。隨著雷曼（Lehman）倒閉后的恐慌漸漸平息，各家銀行的放貸意愿又開(kāi)始增強(qiáng)。伯納和格瑞勞說(shuō)，當(dāng)前形勢(shì)正從惡性循環(huán)轉(zhuǎn)向良性循環(huán)。雖然貸款損失仍然存在，尤其是在抵押貸款方面，但他們預(yù)期收緊信貸條件的銀行會(huì)越來(lái)越少，將會(huì)有更多的資金進(jìn)入信貸系統(tǒng)。

　　2. 刺激措施正在發(fā)揮作用。政府的刺激計(jì)劃在危機(jī)正當(dāng)中時(shí)總是加碼最重的，更多蓄勢(shì)待發(fā)的項(xiàng)目以及全國(guó)性和地方性建設(shè)項(xiàng)目將在今年年底和明年啟動(dòng)。這就意味著更多的經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)出以及與此相關(guān)的更多就業(yè)機(jī)會(huì)。

　　3.去庫(kù)存化活動(dòng)減少。相對(duì)于銷售額，庫(kù)存量仍然過(guò)高。但這并不意味著生產(chǎn)完全停滯。只要各公司增產(chǎn)的速度低于需求增長(zhǎng)，他們就可以繼續(xù)減少庫(kù)存，同時(shí)促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。

　　雖然“舊車換現(xiàn)金”項(xiàng)目帶來(lái)了強(qiáng)勁需求，但消費(fèi)前景仍然存在不確定性。但即便消費(fèi)下降，經(jīng)濟(jì)還是可以繼續(xù)增長(zhǎng)，避免再度陷入衰退。只不過(guò)別指望經(jīng)濟(jì)能實(shí)現(xiàn)飛速擴(kuò)張。

　　Following a better-than-expected employment report and indications that the manufacturing sector is beginning to revive， economists have become more confident that recovery is coming. But the big questions remains： is a recovery sustainable. In a recent research report， Richard Berner and David Greenlaw of Morgan Stanley outline three keys to sustained growth.

　　1. Credit markets are loosening up. As the post-Lehman panic subsides banks are becoming more willing to lend again. Berner and Greenlaw say the cycle is moving from 'vicious to virtuous.' Despite continuing loan losses， especially in mortgages， they expect that fewer banks are tightening credit conditions and more money is on its way through the system.

　　2. Stimulus is coming online. The government's stimulus package was always designed to be heavier in the middle， and more shovel-ready projects and state and local construction will come online at the end of this year and into next. That means more output and more jobs associated with that output.

　　3. Reduced inventory liquidation. Inventories are still elevated when compared to sales. But that doesn't mean that output has to completely stall. As long as companies raise production less than demand they can continue to draw down inventories while contributing to growth.

　　Despite strong demand for the cash-for-clunkers program， the outlook for the consumer continues to be uncertain. But even with reduced consumption， the economy can continue to grow and avoid a double-dip recession. Just don't expect blockbuster expansion.