中國(guó)工商銀行（ICBC）行長(zhǎng)楊凱生表示，未來(lái)五年內(nèi)，中國(guó)四大上市銀行可能面臨總計(jì)至少4800億元人民幣（合700億美元）的資本缺口。以市值計(jì)，工行是全球最大的銀行。

　　過(guò)去一個(gè)月里，中國(guó)這些最大型銀行全都宣布了籌集新資本以充實(shí)自身資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表的計(jì)劃。去年，中國(guó)出現(xiàn)了前所未有的信貸狂潮。

　　但各大銀行計(jì)劃籌資的總額，仍遠(yuǎn)低于楊凱生對(duì)未來(lái)五年資本缺口的估算。

　　楊凱生昨日在一份中國(guó)報(bào)紙上撰文寫道，考慮到這一巨大的資本缺口，若僅靠向資本市場(chǎng)融資來(lái)解決這一問(wèn)題，其難度顯然是存在的。

　　楊凱生表示，他提出的這4800億元人民幣缺口還僅僅是測(cè)算了貸款增長(zhǎng)所帶來(lái)的資本占用因素，“如果進(jìn)一步考慮市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和操作風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的因素，其資本占用還將進(jìn)一步增加”。

　　他寫道：“若再加上資本定義日漸趨嚴(yán)的因素，銀行資本缺口將更為顯著。”

　　楊凱生表示，他的估算是基于當(dāng)前11.5%的資本充足率要求、今后五年年均12%的凈利潤(rùn)增幅和年均15%的貸款增幅。

　　作為政府主導(dǎo)的應(yīng)對(duì)金融危機(jī)努力的一部分，中國(guó)各銀行去年總計(jì)發(fā)放了9.6萬(wàn)億元人民幣新增貸款，是前年新增貸款總額的兩倍多。

　　楊凱生寫道，允許銀行通過(guò)資產(chǎn)證券化將貸款轉(zhuǎn)讓給投資者，是解決資本缺口問(wèn)題的一個(gè)有效方式。

　　標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾（Standard & Poor's）分析師廖強(qiáng)表示：“工行多年來(lái)一直在推廣證券化和資產(chǎn)支持證券（ABS）產(chǎn)品。盡管這類產(chǎn)品在中國(guó)仍處在萌芽階段，但中國(guó)政府未來(lái)很可能會(huì)對(duì)它們進(jìn)行進(jìn)一步的推廣。”

　　中國(guó)政府對(duì)允許銀行進(jìn)行貸款證券化一直持非常審慎的態(tài)度，過(guò)去啟動(dòng)的幾個(gè)試點(diǎn)項(xiàng)目在全球金融危機(jī)期間被暫停。

　　在四大上市銀行中，工行、交通銀行（Bank of Communications）和中國(guó)銀行（Bank of China）已宣布了在香港和上海發(fā)售可轉(zhuǎn)債及股票的計(jì)劃，而中國(guó)建設(shè)銀行（China Construction Bank）也已表示，打算通過(guò)類似渠道籌集新資本。

　　惠譽(yù)評(píng)級(jí)（Fitch Ratings）駐北京分析師朱夏蓮（Charlene Chu）表示：“目前的環(huán)境很適合籌資。而且，如果這些銀行希望維持自身的進(jìn)一步增長(zhǎng)，它們也確實(shí)需要籌集新資本。”

　　CHINA BANKS FACE $70BN GAP

　　China's four biggest publicly traded banks could face a combined capital shortfall of at least Rmb480bn ($70bn) over the next five years, according to the president of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, the world's biggest bank by market value.

　　All of China's largest banks have announced plans in the past month to raise fresh capital to shore up their balance sheets after an unprecedented credit binge last year.

　　But the total amounts they plan to raise fall far short of the five-year estimate of Yang Kaisheng, ICBC president .

　　Given the sheer size of the shortfall, the banks will find it very difficult to rely solely on Chinese capital markets to fill the gap, Mr Yang wrote in an article published in a Chinese newspaper yesterday.

　　Mr Yang said his Rmb480bn estimate only included the extra capital that would be required as a result of steady lending growth “but if we consider the market risks and operational risks the amount of capital needed will be greater”.

　　“If regulatory requirements become stricter then the capital shortfall will be even more severe,” he wrote.

　　Mr Yang said his estimate was based on the current required capital adequacy ratio of 11.5 per cent, net profit growth of 12 per cent and loan growth of 15 per cent over the next five years.

　　As part of a state-led response to the financial crisis, Chinese banks extended Rmb9,600bn in new loans last year, more than double the amount they lent in 2008.

　　One solution to the banks' expected capital shortfall would be to allow them greater freedom to resell and securitise loans, Mr Yang wrote.

　　“ICBC has been promoting securitisation and asset-backed security products for years and although these are still in their infant stage in China the government is likely to promote them more in the future,” said Liao Qiang, an analyst at Standard & Poor's.

　　The Chinese government has been very cautious about allowing banks to carry out securitisation of loans and most of the few pilot projects that did exist were put on hold during the global financial crisis.

　　Among the four biggest listed Chinese banks, ICBC, Bank of Communications and Bank of China have already announced plans to sell convertible bonds and shares in Hong Kong and Shanghai while China Construction Bank has said it also intended to raise fresh capital through similar channels.

　　“It's a fairly good environment to be raising funds right now, and if they want to support further growth the banks do need to raise additional capital,” said Charlene Chu, an analyst at Fitch Ratings in Beijing.