China and the US have the basis for an agreement at the summit of the Group of 20 leading nations next month on setting targets to cut trade imbalances, according to an adviser to the Chinese central bank.

　　中國(guó)央行的一名顧問表示，在下月20國(guó)集團(tuán)(G20)峰會(huì)期間，中美兩國(guó)在確立削減貿(mào)易失衡的目標(biāo)方面具有達(dá)成一致的基礎(chǔ)。

　　Li Daokui, a member of the central bank’s monetary policy committee and professor at Tsinghua University, said there had been “good progress” at the weekend meeting of G20 finance ministers in South Korea which had moved debate from the “surface issue” of nominal exchange rates to “talking about the substance of rebalancing world trade”.

　　中國(guó)央行貨幣政策委員會(huì)委員、清華大學(xué)教授李稻葵表示，上周末在韓國(guó)舉行的G20財(cái)長(zhǎng)會(huì)議取得了“良好進(jìn)展”，各方的辯論超越了名義匯率這一“表面議題”，轉(zhuǎn)向了“討論調(diào)整世界貿(mào)易平衡的實(shí)質(zhì)”。

　　“China should not be afraid of numerical targets for reducing its trade surplus,” Mr Li told the Financial Times. “China is well positioned politically and economically to make this adjustment.”

　　“中國(guó)不應(yīng)懼怕減少貿(mào)易盈余的數(shù)字目標(biāo)，”李稻葵對(duì)英國(guó)《金融時(shí)報(bào)》表示。“中國(guó)在政治上和經(jīng)濟(jì)上都處于有利地位，能夠做出這種調(diào)整。”

　　China has pushed back strongly against US pressure for a rapid appreciation of its currency, the political and economic dispute at the heart of fears about a global “currency war”.

　　中國(guó)一直強(qiáng)烈抵制美國(guó)要求讓人民幣快速升值的壓力，中美之間的這一政治和經(jīng)濟(jì)糾紛，正是各方擔(dān)心全球“匯率戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)”的癥結(jié)所在。

　　However, although Mr Li is an adviser to the central bank rather than a policymaker, his comments suggest support in China for the US proposal of setting limits on current account surpluses and deficits at about 4 per cent of GDP. “I was very encouraged by the G20 meeting,” Mr Li said. “It is now possible for the two governments [the US and China] and other governments to have a good understanding.”

　　不過，雖然李稻葵并非政策制定者，而是中國(guó)央行的一名顧問，但他的言論似乎表明，中國(guó)方面有人支持美方的提議，即對(duì)經(jīng)常賬戶盈余或赤字設(shè)定上限，使其不超出國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)的4%左右。“最近這次G20會(huì)議使我深受鼓舞，”李稻葵表示。“現(xiàn)在（中美）兩國(guó)政府乃至其它國(guó)家的政府有可能達(dá)成良好的諒解。”

　　Several articles in the Chinese business press have also indicated that the government would be comfortable with the surplus target at that level.

　　中國(guó)財(cái)經(jīng)報(bào)刊上的數(shù)篇文章也暗示，中國(guó)政府將能夠接受上述水平的盈余目標(biāo)。

　　New Delhi is less enthusiastic. Pranab Mukherjee, India’s finance minister, said that the G20 needed to adopt “a formula based on country specific solutions” and avoid a “straitjacket” of general numerical targets.

　　印度方面則沒有那么熱情。印度財(cái)長(zhǎng)普拉納博•穆克吉(Pranab Mukherjee)表示，G20需要采納“基于各國(guó)具體解決方案的公式”，避免普遍數(shù)字目標(biāo)的“緊箍咒”。

　　He warned that any broad policy guidelines to level out deficits and surpluses, might endanger the “normal” functioning of the global economy.

　　他警告稱，任何旨在抑制赤字和盈余的寬泛政策指引，都有可能危及全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的“正常”運(yùn)行。

　　Mr Mukherjee said that India had no plans to impose limits on capital flows into its economy in spite of concerns about accommodative monetary policy in developed economies pushing volatile funds into emerging markets.

　　穆克吉表示，印度沒有限制資本流入本國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的計(jì)劃，盡管有人擔(dān)心，發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體的寬松貨幣政策正將善變的資金推向新興市場(chǎng)。

　　“I am confident that with the flow of foreign institutional investment, invisibles and foreign exchange availability we will be able to contain the current account deficit at between 3 per cent and 3.5 per cent of GDP,” he said. The Chinese government has said little in public on the US plan, although Yi Gang, a central bank deputy governor, said two weeks ago that policymakers aimed to reduce the surplus to 4 per cent of GDP over the next three to five years.

　　“我相信，按照目前的外國(guó)機(jī)構(gòu)投資流動(dòng)、無形收支項(xiàng)目以及外匯可獲得性，我們將能夠把經(jīng)常賬戶赤字遏制在GDP的3%至3.5%，”他表示。中國(guó)政府迄今在公開場(chǎng)合對(duì)美方的計(jì)劃幾乎未作任何表示，不過央行副行長(zhǎng)易綱兩周前表示，政策制定者們力求在今后三至五年內(nèi)，將中國(guó)的盈余削減至GDP的4%。

　　Mr Li said that China’s external surplus was already falling because of rising wages, strong consumption and industries relocating to inland provinces. “Market forces are pushing China to make this adjustment, whether we want to or not,” he said.

　　李稻葵表示，中國(guó)的國(guó)際收支盈余已經(jīng)在下降，原因是國(guó)內(nèi)工資不斷上漲、消費(fèi)強(qiáng)勁，以及多個(gè)產(chǎn)業(yè)正向內(nèi)陸省份轉(zhuǎn)移。“市場(chǎng)力量正在推動(dòng)中國(guó)做出這一調(diào)整，不管我們是否愿意。”

　　In the past, China has usually opposed targets imposed from outside, but it regularly uses self-imposed targets for domestic economic management.

　　以往中國(guó)通常反對(duì)外部施加的目標(biāo)，但在國(guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)管理中，經(jīng)常使用自我施加的目標(biāo)。