After falling more than any other leading Asian equity index in 2010, the Shanghai Composite has jumped almost 9 per cent this year – making it the region’s best performer.

　　上證指數(shù)2010年的跌幅居亞洲主要股指之首，但今年迄今，該指數(shù)已經(jīng)躍增近9%，成為亞洲地區(qū)表現(xiàn)最好的股指。

　　The new optimism of Chinese investors is underpinned by the increasingly widespread belief that the government has won, or is close to winning, its battle against rising inflation.

　　中國投資者新生的樂觀情緒，受到了一個傳播得越來越廣泛的信念的支撐：中國政府抗擊通脹的戰(zhàn)斗已經(jīng)或是即將獲得勝利。

　　That idea will be put to the test on Friday when Beijing releases a treasure trove of statistics on the economy, including gross domestic product for the first quarter and inflation figures for March.

　　這種觀點將在本周五得到驗證，屆時，中國政府將發(fā)布一系列重要的經(jīng)濟數(shù)據(jù)，包括一季度的國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)和3月份的通脹數(shù)據(jù)。

　　“Everybody is watching Friday’s numbers,” says Victoria Mio, a Hong Kong-based fund manager at Robeco, who warns it is too soon to conclude Chinese inflation is under control.

　　“所有人都在關(guān)注周五的數(shù)據(jù)，”荷寶(Robeco)駐香港基金經(jīng)理繆子美(Victoria Mio)表示。她警告，現(xiàn)在就得出中國通脹已經(jīng)得到控制的結(jié)論還太早。

　　Too high an inflation number would raise the prospect that the People’s Bank of China, the central bank, will need to tighten monetary policy more aggressively than expected.

　　如果通脹率過高，那么中國央行可能就有必要以比預期更大的力度收緊貨幣政策。

　　In the past, mainland stock prices have been strongly influenced by the amount of money and credit sloshing around the economy. So moves by the PBoC to rein in bank lending or raise interest rates can hit the market hard – and were a key reason for the Shanghai market’s decline in 2010.

　　過去，流動在中國經(jīng)濟中的資金和信貸額會對中國內(nèi)地股市價格產(chǎn)生影響。因此中國央行抑制銀行放貸或是提高利率，都會給市場造成巨大沖擊——這也是上海股市2010年下跌的一個重要原因。

　　Official data showed consumer prices rose 4.9 per cent in February from a year earlier, exceeding the government’s full-year target of 4 per cent. Economists estimate the figure for March will be about 5.2 per cent.

　　官方數(shù)據(jù)顯示，今年2月，中國的消費者價格指數(shù)同比上漲4.9%，超出了政府4%的全年目標。經(jīng)濟學家估計3月份的數(shù)字會在5.2%左右。

　　Some analysts, and many consumers, question whether the official data can be relied upon to reflect the true extent of the price rises sweeping in the country. “Consumer prices are rising at double-digit rates in so many products and services,” says Andy Xie, an independent strategist and former Morgan Stanley economist for Asia. “There are signs that inflation panic is spreading. Hoarding is already visible from time to time. When it becomes widespread, a social crisis is likely.”

　　一些分析人士和許多消費者都對官方數(shù)據(jù)不放心，懷疑它們能否反映席卷全國的物價上漲的實際程度。“許多商品和服務的消費者價格都在以兩位數(shù)的速度上漲，”獨立策略師、摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)前亞洲經(jīng)濟學家謝國忠(Andy Xie)表示。“有跡象表明，通脹恐慌正在蔓延。囤積現(xiàn)象時有發(fā)生。一旦變得普遍起來，便有可能爆發(fā)社會危機。”

　　Yet most analysts expect inflation will peak at about 5-6 per cent in the middle of this year, thanks to a series of tightening measures by the PBoC over the past six months.

　　不過，大多數(shù)分析師預計，由于中國央行過去半年采取的一系列緊縮措施，中國的通脹率將在今年年中達到5%至6%的峰值，然后回落。

　　Last week the central bank raised interest rates for the fourth time in five months, increasing the deposit rate to 3.25 per cent and the lending rate to 6.31 per cent. The increase “gets us close enough to the end of China’s late tightening cycle to mitigate a key policy overhang”, says Michael Kurtz, a Hong Kong-based strategist at Macquarie.

　　上周，中國央行5個月來第四次上調(diào)了利率，將一年期存貸款利率分別上調(diào)至3.25%和6.31%。麥格理集團(Macquarie)駐香港策略師邁克爾?庫爾茨(Michael Kurtz)表示，加息之后，“中國為消除一個重要政策威脅而進行的最新一輪緊縮已逼近尾聲”。

　　Mr Kurtz is one of several investment bank analysts who have this month lifted their recommendations for Chinese stocks from “underweight” to “neutral” within Asian equity portfolios.

　　本月，有幾位投資銀行的分析師把亞洲股票組合中對中國股票的投資建議從“減持”上調(diào)至“中性”，庫爾茨便是其中之一。

　　“There are a growing number of strategists who have turned more positive on China in the belief that the central bank has nearly completed its tightening process and will shortly be able to declare victory in the inflation battle,” says David Shairp of JPMorgan Asset Management. “By contrast, the historian’s perspective is that it may be too early to declare victory over inflation, given the scale of the monetary boom that preceded it.”

　　 “越來越多的策略師對中國更加樂觀，他們相信，中國央行的緊縮過程已接近完成，很快就會宣告抗擊通脹獲勝，”JP摩根資產(chǎn)管理公司(JPMorgan Asset Management)的戴維?謝普(David Shairp)稱。“與此形成反差的是，歷史學家認為，考慮到此前貨幣激增的規(guī)模，宣稱戰(zhàn)勝通脹或許還為時過早。”

　　Chinese banks issued Rmb7,950bn ($1,200bn) in new renminbi-denominated loans in 2010, overshooting the Rmb7,500bn target Beijing set at the start of the year. But money supply growth has moderated in recent months as government tightening has started to bite.

　　 2010年，中國各銀行新增人民幣貸款7.95萬億元人民幣（合1.2萬億美元），超過了政府年初設定的7.5萬億元的目標。但隨著政府的緊縮政策開始發(fā)揮效力，貨幣供應增幅最近幾個月有所放緩。

　　Alan Lam, China analyst at Julius Baer, the Swiss private bank, says the Shanghai market has largely priced in the tightening measures and the slowdown in money supply growth.

　　瑞士私人銀行寶盛集團(Julius Baer)的中國分析師林志遠(Alan Lam)表示，緊縮措施和貨幣供應增長放緩基本上已體現(xiàn)在上海股市的價格之中。

　　He reckons the Shanghai Composite will rise to 3,300 points by the end of 2011, compared with Wednesday’s closing level of 3,050.4.

　　他認為，上證綜指將在2011年底前升至3300點。該指數(shù)周三收于3050.4點。

　　China bulls point out that, despite the recent tightening measures, inflation is still higher than Chinese deposit rates – an incentive for mainland investors to speculate on stocks rather than keep cash in the bank.

　　看漲中國的人士指出，盡管最近出臺了多項緊縮政策，但中國的通脹率依然高于存款利率——這會激勵內(nèi)地投資者到股市上去投機，而不是把錢存進銀行。

　　To back up their view, they also argue that mainland stocks look inexpensive. The Shanghai Composite is trading at about 14 times forecast earnings, according to Bloomberg data, or a 25 per cent discount to its average over the past five years.

　　為了支持自己的觀點，他們還指出，內(nèi)地股市似乎價格偏低。彭博(Bloomberg)的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，上證綜指目前的預期市盈率在14倍左右，較過去5年的平均水平低25%。

　　The Graham-Dodd price-to-earnings ratio is a more conservative valuation metric based on inflation- adjusted earnings over the past 10 years. By this measure, Chinese equities are trading at a multiple of about 25, close to their long-term average but much higher than other major equity markets.

　　格雷厄姆-多德(Graham-Dodd)市盈率是一個更加保守的估值指標，使用的是過去十年經(jīng)通脹因素調(diào)整后的利潤。按此標準衡量，中國股市的市盈率在25倍左右，接近長期平均水平，但遠高于其它主要股市。

　　The Hong Kong-listed shares of mainland Chinese companies, known as H shares, have seen big inflows from international investors in recent weeks as global fund managers increase their exposure to China. This month H share companies concluded their full year 2010 results season. Earnings, on average, beat consensus by about 7 per cent.

　　最近幾周，隨著跨國基金管理公司增加對中國的投資，來自國際投資者的大量資金流入了在香港上市的內(nèi)地公司股票，即所謂的H股。H股公司2010年財報的發(fā)布于本月結(jié)束，它們的收益平均比預期高出7%。

　　With earnings on the rise and valuations below long-term averages, the bulls reckon the rally shows little sign of stopping. All they need now is for inflation to peak and the Chinese economy to keep on humming.

　　鑒于收益在上升而估值低于長期平均水平，看漲者認為此次反彈幾乎絲毫沒有結(jié)束的跡象。他們現(xiàn)在需要的只是通脹見頂回落和中國經(jīng)濟繼續(xù)蓬勃發(fā)展。