Thailand is on the cusp of having its first-ever woman prime minister after ousted leader Thaksin Shinawatra's youngest sister won a decisive election victory Sunday that challenges the political dominance of the armed forces.

　　泰國前總理他信(Thaksin Shinawatra)最小的妹妹在周日的選舉中取得了決定性的勝利，挑戰(zhàn)了軍方在政界的主導地位，即將成為泰國歷史上的首位女總理。

　　Unofficial results indicate supporters in Mr. Thaksin's Puea Thai, or For Thais, party won a majority in the hotly-contested elections, winning an estimated 264 seats in the 500-seat legislature with 98% of the count completed, according to Thailand's Election Commission. Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva conceded defeat after his governing Democrat party won just 162 seats, and on Monday morning resigned as Democrat leader, although he will remain in place as caretaker prime minister until a new government is formed.

　　Reuters泰國前總理他信的妹妹英拉•西那瓦(Yingluck Shinawatra)有望成為泰國歷史上的首位女總理。圖為英拉在曼谷投票后被媒體圍住。

　　據泰國選舉委員會說，據非官方結果顯示，他信所在的為泰黨(Puea Thai party)的支持者在激烈的選舉中贏得了多數席位；在計票完成了98%時，獲得了議會500個席位中的約264個。泰國總理阿披實(Abhisit Vejjajiva)領導的執(zhí)政黨民主黨(Democrat party)僅贏得了162個席位，他承認選舉失敗，并于周一早間辭任民主黨黨魁。不過，在新政府組閣前，他將留任泰國總理。

　　That result makes it almost certain that Parliament will elect Mr. Thaksin's younger sister, businesswoman Yingluck Shinawatra, 44 years old, as Thailand's next prime minister in the coming months.

　　這一結果幾乎肯定意味著，未來幾個月議會將選舉他信44歲的妹妹、女商人英拉(Yingluck Shinawatra)擔任泰國下任總理。

　　It also represents a major victory for Mr. Thaksin, a populist telecommunications billionaire who was ousted by Thailand's military in a coup five years ago but who has continued to rally his supporters from abroad, at times leading to violent clashes in Bangkok and elsewhere. It remains unclear when, or if, he will return from his self-imposed exile in Dubai, but the result means he is likely to play a major role in governing one of Southeast Asia's most important economies for some time.

　　這對身家數十億美元的民粹主義電信巨子他信來說也是一場重大的勝利。五年前，他信在泰國的一場軍事政變中被趕下臺，不過他一直繼續(xù)在海外召集支持者，甚至曾在曼谷等地造成暴力沖突。目前仍不清楚他信是否以及何時將結束迪拜的流亡生活回國，不過選舉的結果意味著，在一段時間內，他很可能在東南亞最重要的經濟體之一泰國的治理中發(fā)揮重要作用。

　　At Puea Thai's headquarters in Bangkok, Ms. Yingluck was besieged by photographers as she stepped out to greet supporters. 'Thaksin called me to congratulate and encourage me,' she said. Mr. Thaksin himself also telephoned local television networks to celebrate and urge reconciliation with Thailand's military.

　　在曼谷為泰黨的總部，英拉走出來向支持者致意時，被攝影師包圍。她說，他信打電話給我，向我表示祝賀并提出了鼓勵。他信還親自致電當地電視臺，表示慶祝，并敦促與泰國軍方達成和解。

　　Later, Ms. Yingluck told a news conference she had already conferred with smaller parties about creating a broader governing coalition. She vowed, too, to deliver on her campaign pledges to raise wages and living standards.

　　之后，英拉在新聞發(fā)布會上說，她已經與較小的黨派就創(chuàng)建一個更廣泛的執(zhí)政聯盟進行了磋商。她還鄭重承諾將兌現自己的選舉諾言，提高民眾的工資和生活水平。

　　The question going forward, analysts say, is whether the politically inexperienced Ms. Yingluck will be able to hang on to power for long─and whether she can help stabilize this key U.S. ally at a time when Washington is taking a greater interest in Southeast Asia as it tries to counter China's growing influence in the region.

　　泰國前總理他信的妹妹、為泰黨總理競選人英拉在周日的選舉中取得了決定性的勝利，即將成為泰國歷史上的首位女總理。動蕩的泰國政局是否會因此出現轉折點？這一消息又會對市場造成怎樣的影響？《華爾街日報》的Jake Lee和Peter Stein對以上問題進行了討論。分析人士說，接下來的問題是缺乏政治經驗的英拉是否能夠長期執(zhí)政，以及她是否能夠幫助穩(wěn)定美國的這個重要盟友，而目前華盛頓正努力反制中國在東南亞日益增強的影響力，開始對這一地區(qū)表現出更大的興趣。

　　'The larger the majority, the more stable the Puea Thai government will be and the harder it will be for the army or other institutions to move against it,' said Pavin Chachavalpongpun from the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore, referring to the military's long history of intervening in Thai politics.

　　新加坡東南亞研究所(Institute of Southeast Asian Studies)的Pavin Chachavalpongpun說，獲得的多數席位越多，為泰黨的執(zhí)政將越穩(wěn)定，軍方或其他組織越難以反對它。他指的是泰國軍方干預泰國政局的漫長歷史。

　　Since the 2006 coup, Thailand has seen its reputation as 'The Land of Smiles' badly tarnished amid violent street protests and an economically damaging airport blockade. Analysts say an increasingly politicized judiciary has also emerged. In 2008 alone, two pro-Thaksin premiers were forced to step down after falling foul of the country's courts─one for accepting payments to appear on a television cooking show and the other for vote buying.

　　自2006年的政變以來，泰國曾多次發(fā)生街頭暴力抗議活動，機場也一度被封鎖，使經濟受到嚴重破壞。泰國“微笑之國”的聲譽受到了嚴重損害。分析人士說，此外，還出現了越來越政治化的司法部門。僅在2008年，就有兩位親他信的總理因惹上官司而被迫下臺──一位是收錢在電視烹飪節(jié)目中露面，一位是買選票。

　　Already, Thailand's Election Commission says it has received 196 complaints about vote-buying in these latest polls, which could leave the door open to challenges of the results down the road.

　　泰國選舉委員會說，已經收到了196人的投訴，他們說最近幾次的投票中存在買選票的現象，這可能為未來挑戰(zhàn)選舉結果打開大門。

　　But people familiar with the situation say Puea Thai emissaries and senior military officers have been discussing how to manage the outcome of the elections for weeks in order to guide Thailand out of its cycle of elections, coups and government dissolutions.

　　不過，據知情人士說，為泰黨的特使和高層軍事官員數周來一直在討論如何管理選舉結果，以便指引泰國走出選舉、政變、政府解體的怪圈。