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油價下跌有利經(jīng)濟(jì)(Falling Oil Prices Could Help Aid Econ)
油價終于獲得了應(yīng)有的關(guān)注，但并不是以大多數(shù)人所預(yù)期的方式。
也就是說，原油期貨價格周一再度下跌，但股市卻漲幅可觀?；蛟S我們終于迎來了一個轉(zhuǎn)折點──下跌的油價被視為對市場和經(jīng)濟(jì)有利的因素，而非負(fù)面因素。
事實上本該如此。較低的原油價格和相應(yīng)較低的汽油價格令消費者有了更多可供支配的開支。較低的能源價格也對工業(yè)有好處。然而許多人卻認(rèn)死理，覺得無論怎樣，油價上漲就意味著經(jīng)濟(jì)前景好轉(zhuǎn)。
但受投機(jī)活動甚于基本面因素推動的油價，已經(jīng)上漲得太高、太快了，因此成了未來經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的絆腳石。大幅上漲的油價與原油高庫存量以及相當(dāng)溫和的經(jīng)濟(jì)活動不相匹配。回歸更為實際的價格水平將給脆弱的經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來提振。
當(dāng)然，在某個時間點上，如果經(jīng)濟(jì)增長轉(zhuǎn)強(qiáng)、就業(yè)市場復(fù)蘇，那么基本面因素將開始推動油價走高。但我們離那個時候尚有一段距離。
Oil prices are finally getting the attention they deserve， but not the way that most folks anticipated.
To wit， crude-oil futures are down again Monday， but stocks are substantially higher. Perhaps we are finally seeing the turning point where falling oil prices are seen as a positive， rather than a negative， for the market and the economy.
This is， actually， as it should be. Lower oil prices， and by translation lower gasoline prices， help put more money in consumers' pockets. Lower energy prices also benefit industry. Many folks， however， became wed to the notion that rising oil meant improving economic prospects， no matter what.
But oil， driven by speculation more than fundamentals， raced too high too fast， thereby becoming a brake on any prospective growth. The sharp rise in prices defied high inventory levels and rather meek economic activity. The retreat to more realistic price levels should give the fragile economy a bit of a boost.
Of course， at a certain point fundamentals， in the form of stronger economic growth and a rebound in the employment picture， will start to drive oil prices higher. We are， however， not near that point yet.
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