Chinese policymakers are examining bank lending targets for next year that will equal or even exceed their 2010 quota, despite fears about overheating amid the highest inflation in the country in more than two years.

　　中國政策制定者正在研究明年的銀行放貸目標(biāo)。盡管通脹創(chuàng)逾兩年新高引發(fā)了過熱擔(dān)憂，但明年新增貸款目標(biāo)仍可能與今年持平，甚至更高。

　　Most analysts had expected a significant reduction from Beijing’s 2010 target of Rmb7,500bn ($1,100bn) in total new loans, especially after inflation hit 5.1 per cent in November and the government promised to tighten monetary policy.

　　此前分析師大多預(yù)期明年新增貸款目標(biāo)將遠(yuǎn)低于今年的7.5萬億元人民幣（合1.1萬億美元），尤其是自從11月通脹觸及5.1%以及政府承諾收緊貨幣政策以后。

　　But on Tuesday, a leading Chinese official newspaper reported that the government’s lending quota would probably again be Rmb7,500bn in 2011.

　　但據(jù)本周二中國一份主要官方報(bào)紙報(bào)道，2011年新增貸款目標(biāo)很可能保持在7.5萬億元水平。

　　Officials close to the process stressed that the final quota decision has not been made and the Rmb7,500bn figure is just “one opinion”.

　　接近討論過程的官員強(qiáng)調(diào)說，最終指標(biāo)目前尚未敲定，7.5萬億也只是“一種意見”。

　　The various regulatory agencies responsible for economic policy are meeting “every day” to discuss how much credit the state-controlled banking sector will be allocated, officials said.

　　官員們表示，負(fù)責(zé)經(jīng)濟(jì)政策的各監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)現(xiàn)在“天天開會(huì)”，討論受政府控制的銀行業(yè)來年的信貸指標(biāo)。

　　The range under discussion is between Rmb7,000bn and Rmb8,000bn, with the final quota likely to be at the high end, marking an extension of the credit surge launched in late 2008 to combat the financial crisis. Chinese banks gave twice the volume of loans in 2009 over 2008. Despite attempts to rein in loan growth this year, Chinese banks lent roughly the same amount as they did in 2009, once off-balance sheet lending is taken into consideration.

　　所討論的范圍介于7萬億至8萬億之間，最終可能定在這個(gè)區(qū)間的高端。這意味著2008年末為應(yīng)對金融危機(jī)而啟動(dòng)的信貸熱潮將得到延續(xù)。2009年中國銀行業(yè)的貸款投放規(guī)模為2008年的兩倍。今年雖然有意放慢貸款增速，但如果算上表外貸款，各銀行實(shí)際放貸規(guī)模還是和2009年差不多。

　　“The market was expecting a credit quota of between Rmb5,000bn and Rmb7,000bn with Rmb7,000bn as the ceiling as the government tries to reduce liquidity and deal with inflation,” said Dorris Chen, of BNP Paribas. “It now appears Rmb7,000bn is the floor for next year rather than the ceiling.”

　　法國巴黎銀行(BNP Paribas)分析師陳睆明(Dorris Chen)表示：“鑒于政府在設(shè)法減少流動(dòng)性，應(yīng)對通脹，市場原本預(yù)期明年新增貸款目標(biāo)會(huì)介于5萬億至7萬億之間，7萬億是上限，但如今看來7萬億是下限，而不是上限。”

　　The higher-than-expected quota suggests that Chinese leaders are still relatively sanguine about the country’s inflation prospects.

　　信貸投放目標(biāo)高于預(yù)期似乎表明，中國領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人對國內(nèi)通脹前景仍然比較樂觀。

　　With food, especially vegetables, driving most of the recent price rises, some analysts believe the problem will be short-lived and that inflation may have already peaked.

　　鑒于近期物價(jià)上漲主要由食品（尤其是蔬菜）拉動(dòng)，一些分析師認(rèn)為，物價(jià)飆升只會(huì)是短暫現(xiàn)象，通脹可能已經(jīng)見頂。

　　But analysts say inflation worries are also being overshadowed by concerns that sharply cutting credit could stall growth by leaving many infrastructure and development projects unfunded. BNP Paribas estimates that local government infrastructure projects, many of them launched as part of Beijing’s stimulus to combat the financial crisis, will require as much as Rmb4,000bn in new loans next year.

　　不過，分析師表示，另一個(gè)因素是，中國對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長停滯的擔(dān)憂超過了對通脹的擔(dān)憂——假如大幅削減信貸，將導(dǎo)致許多基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施及開發(fā)項(xiàng)目資金缺位，阻礙經(jīng)濟(jì)增長。據(jù)法國巴黎銀行估計(jì)，明年各地方政府的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施項(xiàng)目需要多達(dá)4萬億元人民幣的新貸款，其中許多項(xiàng)目的上馬，是中國為應(yīng)對金融危機(jī)而出臺的經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激計(jì)劃的一部分。