I hesitate to use the overplayed word 'bubble.' But in the case of London property, it's hard to avoid.

　　我不愿使用“泡沫”這個過分夸大的詞匯，但在談到倫敦的房地產(chǎn)市場時，這還是無法避免。

　　What's happening here is absolutely ridiculous.

　　這里正在發(fā)生的一切簡直就是荒謬。

　　Look in the window of any real-estate agent here and you think people have gone crazy - and then you realize that the prices are in British pounds, and that to convert to dollars you have to add another 60%.

　　從任何一家房地產(chǎn)代理商的窗口往里望去，你會認為人們都瘋了。然后你會意識到價格是以英鎊計算的，將之轉(zhuǎn)換成美元的話，你還得在原來的價格數(shù)字基礎(chǔ)上再加60%。

　　Half a million pounds ($800,000) for a one-bedroom condo with a small garden on the southern, unfashionable side of the river Thames? Really? And $2 million for a modest two-bedroom condo in Chelsea?

　　在并不時尚的泰晤士河南岸，帶一座小花園的一居室公寓要價50萬英鎊（約合80萬美元），這是真的嗎？切爾西一套不算大的兩居室公寓竟然要價200萬美元？

　　As John McEnroe used to say at Wimbledon, you cannot be serious.

　　就像網(wǎng)球名將麥肯羅（John McEnroe）在溫布爾登常說的那樣，你一定在開玩笑。

　　While the rest of Britain grapples with austerity, falling real wages and budget cuts, London real estate - super-prime London real estate, the best of the best - is back in the grip of another mania.

　　盡管英國的大部分地區(qū)還在竭力同財政緊縮、實際工資下降和預(yù)算減少做斗爭，但倫敦的房地產(chǎn)市場已經(jīng)再次受到另一輪樓市狂熱的嚴重影響。這可是倫敦的房地產(chǎn)市場，全球最好的市場??！

　　According to an index maintained by high-end real-estate firm Knight Frank, prime central London prices are nearing and may even be surpassing the giddy levels seen at the peak a few years ago. The brokers' windows tell the same story.

　　高端地產(chǎn)經(jīng)紀公司Knight Frank統(tǒng)計的一項指數(shù)顯示，倫敦市中心高檔物業(yè)的價格已接近甚至有可能超過幾年前令人暈眩的峰值水平。地產(chǎn)經(jīng)紀的玻璃窗上貼滿的價格條也同樣揭示了這一點。

　　It's like that whole Lehman thing never even happened.

　　這就好像雷曼兄弟倒閉以及之后的金融危機全然沒有發(fā)生過。

　　What's going on?

　　到底怎么了？

　　"London property is the 'Swiss bank account' of the 21st century," Robin Hardy, an analyst at London investment firm Peel Hunt, explained to me. Rich people in places like Egypt, Syria and southern Europe are rushing to get their money away from the turmoil, and for want of a better alternative, they are plunking it down in the "millionaire's playground" of central London.

　　倫敦投資公司Peel Hunt 的分析師哈代（Robin Hardy）是這么向我解釋的：倫敦的房地產(chǎn)就像21世紀的瑞士銀行帳戶。埃及、敘利亞和南歐的富豪正抓緊將資金從動蕩的國內(nèi)轉(zhuǎn)移到這里。由于沒有其它更為理想的投資渠道，這些人便將錢砸在了有“百萬富翁游樂場”之稱的倫敦市中心的物業(yè)上。

　　"It's seen as a relatively safe place to put your money if your objective is capital preservation," he said. They think money is"'safer invested in an apartment in Sloane Street than in a bank account in Damascus."

　　哈代說，如果你的目標只是保本，那么置業(yè)是一種相對安全的投資方式。這些富豪認為，相比把錢存在大馬士革的一家銀行里，在斯隆街（Sloane Street）投資一套公寓更為安全。

　　Foxtons, a high-end real-estate agency, told me that 80% of its sales this year at its Sloane Square branch have come from overseas buyers.

　　高端房地產(chǎn)代理商Foxtons告訴我，今年該公司在斯隆廣場（Sloane Square）的分支機構(gòu)售出的房屋中有80%為海外買家所購買。

　　This is just the latest twist to a story that's been running for some time. Gulf sheikhs. Russian oligarchs. Newly rich Indian and Chinese tycoons. London has become a magnate for the international super-rich: a millionaire's playground. Russian money has been flooding in for at least a decade. One hedge-fund manager here told me London property was a "laundromat for Russian money."

　　這不過是一個已經(jīng)流傳了一段時間的故事的最新進展。海灣酋長、俄羅斯寡頭、印度新貴以及中國富豪，倫敦已然成為國際超級富豪的游樂場。俄羅斯人的錢已經(jīng)涌入這座城市至少十年。本地一位對沖基金經(jīng)理告訴我，倫敦地產(chǎn)是“俄羅斯資金的洗錢機”。

　　You can see it in the fanciest shopping districts, from Jermyn Street and Old Bond Street.

　　從杰明街（Jermyn Street）到舊邦德街（Old Bond Street）的那些最高檔的購物區(qū)里你能看出端倪。

　　The booms in oil and emerging markets have been very good for prices here for at least a decade. Great Britain, through generous tax treatment of foreign nationals, has cleverly encouraged the trend.

　　石油和新興市場的繁榮支撐此地的房價至少已有十年的時間。通過給予外國人優(yōu)惠的稅收政策，英國巧妙地助推了這一趨勢。

　　A friend of mine a few years ago described how a Gulf sheikh was steadily buying up more and more of her condo development just north of Hyde Park. The sheikh liked to come to London for two months every summer to escape the Gulf heat, and he liked to bring his extended family and entourage. He didn't care much about price, and he wanted as many condos as he could get.

　　我的一個朋友幾年前曾向我介紹一位海灣國家酋長是如何堅定地在海德公園（Hyde Park）北面買下一套又一套的公寓。這位酋長喜歡每年夏天來倫敦小住兩個月以躲避海灣的炙熱。他總是要帶上一大家子人和隨從。他并不在意價格，只想買下盡可能多的公寓。

　　There are other factors at work. London has become the financial capital of Europe. The giant money machine has spread far beyond the old financial district of the City of London. High-powered hedge funds and secretive commodity firms crowd the alleys and lanes of Mayfair and the towers of redeveloped Docklands. The windfalls have long been seen as a major driver of property prices.

　　還有其它因素在起作用。倫敦已成為歐洲的金融重心。巨大的賺錢機器早已開到了倫敦城老金融區(qū)之外。實力雄厚的對沖基金和神秘的大宗商品交易公司占領(lǐng)了倫敦高檔社區(qū)的大街小巷，以及重新開發(fā)的Docklands的塔樓。這也成為了助推倫敦房價的主要因素。

　　Housing supply is limited, especially in the best areas. London has tough zoning laws, so there is very little new development.

　　住房供應(yīng)是有限的，特別是在那些最佳區(qū)域。倫敦對于哪些區(qū)域的土地可以作何種使用有著嚴格的法律規(guī)定，所以倫敦新開發(fā)的房地產(chǎn)項目很少。

　　And you can also throw into the mix low interest rates. A friend explained how his grossly overpriced home cost him very little every year, because he is paying just 1% interest on a flexible mortgage.

　　低利率也是推漲倫敦房地產(chǎn)市場的一個因素。筆者的一位朋友曾說，他那明顯價格過高的住房每年的按揭成本卻很低，因為他的可調(diào)息按揭貸款目前的借款利率只有1%。

　　To hear people tell it here, this miracle will go on indefinitely. Prices will keep rising skyward. You no longer encounter many bears of London property. Most have given up.

　　照倫敦人的說法，這里的房地產(chǎn)奇跡能夠無限期延續(xù)下去。房價將持續(xù)高漲。倫敦的房地產(chǎn)業(yè)將不會再遇到多少熊市。大多數(shù)熊市都已經(jīng)歷過了。

　　But there are a couple of wrinkles that should give people pause. 但幾個不利因素卻是人們決定投資倫敦房地產(chǎn)之前應(yīng)該考慮到的。

　　First, you see more and more dark windows. On Sunday I went to a pub with one of my oldest friends. He described how more and more properties in central London were simply unused most of the year. You'd look up at the windows as you walked down the street, and very few were lit up.

　　首先，倫敦那些晚上徹夜黑燈的住宅越來越多。這個周日我與一位相交最久的朋友去酒吧，他向我描述了倫敦市中心一年到頭都不大被使用的房屋如何越來越多。你只需在大街上漫步時抬頭望一下，就能看到街邊建筑物的窗戶很少是亮著的。

　　A recent study by Knight Frank found that one of the top reasons the international elite gave for selling a London home was simply that it was surplus to their needs.

　　房地產(chǎn)經(jīng)紀公司萊坊(Knight Frank)新近進行的一項研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，那些國際精英們決定賣掉在倫敦的住房時給出的最重要理由之一不過是，他們不大用得著這些房子。

　　The second concern is that more and more actual British are being crowded out of the city. Over dinners in the past 10 days, both a London member of Parliament and a top executive at a fund firm here have bemoaned the fact that young people can no longer afford to move into the usual London neighborhoods when they start their careers here. They've been priced out. Many of the middle-class are suffering the same fate. Ultimately, this simply becomes unsustainable. It will strangle the city's vitality.

　　第二個令人擔憂的因素是，越來越多貨真價實的英國人被擠出了倫敦。過去10天筆者在與英國議會一位倫敦籍議員和倫敦一家基金的高管共進晚餐時，他們都哀嘆說，那些開始在倫敦討生活的年青人已不再負擔得起倫敦人以往常住的那些房子了。高漲的房價已經(jīng)把他們擠出了倫敦。許多中產(chǎn)階級也面臨同樣的命運。這種局面最終將無法維持下去。它將扼殺倫敦這座城市的活力。

　　The third problem is that 1% interest rates will not last forever. Sooner or later they will have to rise, and when they do, a lot of home loans will become unmanageable as well as unrepayable. Happy times.

　　第三個問題是，利率無法永遠停留在1%的低水平。利率遲早都要升上去，當那一天真的到來時，許多住房貸款都將因不堪重負而無法償還。珍惜現(xiàn)在的幸福時光吧。

　　The fourth issue is one that often gets forgotten. In the age of the Internet and modern technology, the comparative advantages of big, expensive cities like London are actually in decline. Twenty years ago, if you wanted to run a hedge fund in the British Isles, you probably had to do it in London. That is no longer the case. It is a lot cheaper - and the quality of life much better - if you move out of town.

　　第四個問題是經(jīng)常被人遺忘。在互聯(lián)網(wǎng)和現(xiàn)代科技大行其道的今天，像倫敦這種居住成本高的大城市，其比較優(yōu)勢其實是在下降的。20年前，如果你想在英倫三島經(jīng)營一只對沖基金，你或許不得不在倫敦開展相關(guān)業(yè)務(wù)。而如今再也不是這種情況了。你可以在倫敦以外的地方運營這只基金，而那里的生活成本會低很多，生活質(zhì)量也會比倫敦好很多。

　　The fifth problem, though, is probably most ominous: the plunge in rental yields.

　　第五個問題可能是對房主最為不利的，那就是租房收益率的大幅下降。

　　According to Knight Frank, while prime London sales prices have doubled in the past 10 years, prime London rents have risen by less than 10%. The net result is that landowners are getting a gross yield of maybe 3.6% on average, compared to more than 6% a decade ago. Conversations I've had - with renters and owners - suggest some are getting even less.

　　據(jù)萊坊說，過去10年倫敦黃金地段的房屋售價已經(jīng)增長了一倍，而倫敦黃金地段的房屋租金只上漲了不到10%。二者相抵，導致房主的租房毛收益率平均只有3.6%，低于10年前6%的水平。我與房主和租戶們交流后發(fā)現(xiàn)，一些房主的租房毛收益率甚至更低。

　　Once you subtract all the costs of buying and selling a home, maintenance, taxes and condo fees, some landlords are making very little - if anything.

　　如果你再將買賣、維修房屋的成本以及房產(chǎn)稅和物業(yè)費從房屋租賃收益中減去，一些房主靠出租房子就算能有所收益，也幾乎賺不到什么錢了。

　　As usual, the defenders of current prices are quick with a rebuttal: "But people aren't investing for the yield," they say. "They are investing for the capital gains!"

　　那些捍衛(wèi)當前房價合理性的人通常會立即反駁說，人們投資買房不是為了賺取那點租房收益，他們是為了賺取資本利得！

　　Alas for this argument, in a rational market, yields are the drivers of capital gains. The price of an asset goes up because the current owners are earning so much money that outsiders want in. The idea that people will keeping bidding up prices of an asset that makes no money is quixotic at best.

　　這種論調(diào)真夠嗆，在一個理性的市場上，收益率是資本利得的推動力。某種資產(chǎn)的價格之所以上漲，是因為其所有人正在從這份資產(chǎn)上賺大錢，從而引得其他人也想擁有這種資產(chǎn)。那種認為人們會把一種不掙錢資產(chǎn)的價格持續(xù)推高的想法，往好里說也是癡心妄想。

　　Will it turn? If so, when? It's anyone's guess. But for those living and working in Britain, the conclusions are pretty obvious. If I moved back to this country, I would avoid living and working in London if at all possible. And if I had to be in London, I'd rent.

　　倫敦的房價會調(diào)頭下行嗎？如果會，將出現(xiàn)在什么時候？ 這當然誰也說不好。不過對那些生活和工作在英國的人來說，結(jié)論是顯然的。如果我回到英國居住，可能的話我會盡量避免生活和工作在倫敦。如果我非得住在倫敦，我會選擇租房。