Carworkers in southern Guangdong province warned the world last year it could not take cheap Chinese labour for granted any more by successfully agitating for higher wages in a series of industrial actions. Shanghai truckers reinforced that message with a strike of their own last week.

　　中國廣東省的汽車制造工人去年通過一系列罷工行動，成功實現(xiàn)了加薪，由此向全世界發(fā)出警告，不能再認為中國勞動力廉價是理所當然的。上海的貨車司機們上周通過罷工行動，再次強化了這一信號。

　　The Chinese government is always wary of workers who possess the wherewithal to organise independent industrial action outside the auspices of the country’s only sanctioned union, the All China Federation of Trade Unions. But Shanghai’s truckers undoubtedly frighten Beijing more.

　　中華全國總工會(All China Federation of Trade Unions)是中國唯一一家得到政府認可的工會組織，對于有能力在全國總工會之外發(fā)起獨立罷工行動的工人，中國政府一直較為警惕。但上海的貨車司機無疑讓政府更為緊張。

　　The adage in western democracies that “all politics is local” has a parallel in authoritarian China, where almost all social unrest is local too. Dozens if not hundreds of small-scale protests, typically labour or land-related, flare every day.

　　西方民主國家的格言——“所有的政治都是地方的”——也適用于威權體制的中國。在中國，幾乎所有的社會動蕩也都是地方上的，每天都會發(fā)生數(shù)十起乃至數(shù)百起小規(guī)模示威，通常都與勞工或土地問題有關。

　　For all the attention they commanded, the Guangdong strikes were in keeping with this pattern. Each concerned pay and conditions on the factory floor and they were resolved on the factory floor. The ire was directed at management, most notably at factories run by Honda and other Japanese carmakers.

　　引起廣泛關注的廣東工人的罷工就屬于這種模式：每起罷工涉及的都是工資和工作條件，也都在工廠內部得到了解決。工人的憤怒指向了管理層，特別是在本田(Honda)等日本汽車制造商經營的工廠里。

　　Shanghai’s truckers latched on to something larger that, from the Chinese government’s perspective, made their strike potentially more dangerous. They were more explicit about their impatience with inflation in the form of the rising port fees and fuel costs that are eroding their ability to make a living. As one trucker told the FT: “This truck is all I have to support my wife and kid.”

　　上海貨車司機們的訴求更大，這使得他們的罷工在中國政府眼中可能也更危險。司機們明確表現(xiàn)出對通脹正在失去耐心，港口費用和燃料成本的不斷上漲侵蝕了他們的謀生能力。一位卡車司機對英國《金融時報》說：“我全靠這輛卡車養(yǎng)活老婆孩子。”

　　Port fees can be blamed on port operators, even if they are state-owned, and at the weekend the Shanghai Transport and Port Authority announced a reduction or cancellation of various charges. In doing so the authority did not mention the strikes, saying only that the fee cuts were aimed at “easing rising inflation and cost pressures on transport companies”. It also lowered the monthly fee taxi drivers must pay for their vehicle, in a canny effort to prevent the port protests on the city’s outskirts from spreading into Shanghai proper.

　　政府可以將港口費用上漲歸咎于港口運營商，即便他們是國有企業(yè)。周末，上海市交通港口局(Shanghai Transport and Port Authority)宣布降低或取消多個收費項目。官方在宣布減免收費時并沒有提到罷工，只是說降低費用旨在“緩解物價和費用上漲對運輸企業(yè)經營的壓力”。有關政府部門還降低了出租車司機每月繳納的份子錢。此舉頗為聰明，是為了防止發(fā)生在港口的示威活動從市郊蔓延到整個上海。

　　If only Beijing could fix inflation as readily as it fixes fees. Interest rate increases and other measures aimed at reining in price rises have thus far failed to have their intended effect, with inflation hitting a 32-month high of 5.4 per cent last month. As Wen Jiabao, China’s premier, put it recently, the government is discovering that inflation is a tiger that “once set free is very difficult to put back in its cage”.

　　中國政府若是能像解決收費問題那樣輕易解決通脹問題就好了。旨在遏制物價上漲的加息及其他措施，迄今都未達到預期效果，上個月通脹率達到5.4%的32個月高點。正如中國總理溫家寶最近所說，政府發(fā)現(xiàn)，通脹就像老虎，“如果放出來就很難再關進去”。

　　The government will have gotten off lightly should this weekend’s fee reductions prove enough to send Shanghai’s truckers home, especially if they disperse before drivers in other cities cotton on to their example. As with last year’s Honda strikes, censors have imposed a strict media blackout to prevent exactly that.

　　如果周末減免費用的舉措足以讓上海的貨車司機們重返崗位，尤其是能讓他們在其他城市的司機們開始效仿之前就自行解散，那么政府就躲過了麻煩。與去年本田在華企業(yè)發(fā)生罷工時一樣，審查機關嚴格封鎖了媒體報道，就是為了避免罷工蔓延。

　　While the authorities can do little to prevent vertical explosions of local discontent – think of thousands of little volcanoes erupting all over the country – they are ruthless when it comes to eradicating any horizontal linkages that might give rise to larger co-ordinated movements. Hence the brutality they unleashed on the highly networked Falungong cult a decade ago, and more recently their over-reaction to the anonymous internet pleas for “jasmine” protests inspired by this year’s Arab spring.

　　盡管政府部門幾乎無法阻止本地不滿情緒的縱向爆發(fā)——可以想像數(shù)以千計的小火山正在全國各處噴發(fā)，但他們不遺余力地消除橫向聯(lián)系，以免出現(xiàn)更大規(guī)模的協(xié)同運動。十年前，政府強硬打壓了組織嚴密的法輪功邪教。最近，面對“阿拉伯之春”啟發(fā)下中國網(wǎng)絡上匿名發(fā)起的“茉莉花”示威號召，政府也有些反應過度。

　　As for the truckers’ concern about the rising price of diesel, increasing China’s already generous fuel subsidy would be too costly and humiliating a concession for such a localised disturbance. Beijing sets fuel prices and has raised them twice already this year.

　　對于貨車司機對柴油價格不斷上漲的擔憂，中國政府若提高本已相當慷慨的燃料補貼，成本未免太過高昂，而且對于這樣一場地方性的騷亂作出讓步，也會令政府難堪。中國的燃料價格由政府制定，而中國政府今年已兩次上調油價。

　　Yet Chinese truckers still pay just $1.05 per litre of diesel fuel – 35.1 percent below the international market price – and the government fears the financial consequences of this year’s oil price surge. Minggao Shen, a China equity analyst at Citibank, has estimated that $150 a barrel oil would cost the government $66bn annually in subsidies.

　　不過，中國的貨車司機每升柴油仍只需支付1.05美元的價格，比國際市場低35.1%，政府也在擔心今年油價飆升可能帶來的財政后果?；ㄆ煦y行(Citibank)中國股市分析師沈明高估計，國際油價達到每桶150美元時，中國政府每年的補貼成本將達到660億美元。

　　But even if Shanghai’s truckers fade away quietly this time, they have already proved that one of the government’s worst fears was not misplaced – inflation can and will continue to inspire protests and social unrest. Another long, hot summer is just beginning on the Chinese mainland.

　　即使這一次上海貨車司機們悄然淡出人們的視野，但他們至少已經證明，政府最大的擔憂并非多慮：通脹可能（也將會）繼續(xù)引發(fā)抗議和社會動蕩。中國內地又一個漫長炎熱的夏季才剛剛開始。