The International Monetary Fund has warned of a “severe shock” to global financial markets if the US does not move quickly to increase its borrowing authority, adding pressure on Congress and the White House to clinch a deal on fiscal policy.

　　國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)警告，如果美國政府不能迅速采取行動，上調(diào)其法定債務(wù)上限，那將對全球金融市場造成“嚴(yán)重沖擊”，這一警告加大了針對美國國會和白宮的壓力，要求它們在財政政策上盡快達成共識。

　　In its annual report on US economic policy, the IMF cited “unfavourable fiscal outcomes” as one of the key dangers to the country’s economic outlook.

　　IMF在其有關(guān)美國經(jīng)濟政策的年度報告中指出，“不利的財政結(jié)局”是該國經(jīng)濟前景面臨的主要危險之一。

　　“These could take the form of a sudden increase in interest rates and/or a sovereign downgrade if an agreement on consolidation does not materialise or the debt ceiling is not raised soon enough,” the IMF said.

　　“這些結(jié)局的形式可能是利率突然上調(diào)及/或主權(quán)評級遭到調(diào)降——如果達不成有關(guān)財政整頓的協(xié)議，或者債務(wù)上限沒有得到及時上調(diào)，”IMF表示。

　　It added: “These risks would also have significant global repercussions, given the central role of US Treasury bonds in world financial markets.”

　　該機構(gòu)補充稱：“鑒于美國國債在世界金融市場的中心角色，這些風(fēng)險還可能產(chǎn)生重大的全球沖擊波。”

　　The US Treasury department has said that if Congress does not raise the debt limit – currently at $14,300bn – the US would run out of cash to pay its obligations and could default as early as August 2. But Republicans and Democrats in Congress and the White House have so far been unable to break the political impasse surrounding fiscal policy, as they spar over spending levels and taxation. Republicans have been resisting an increase in the debt ceiling to extract deeper spending cuts and fiscal reforms, while opposing any tax increases.

　　美國財政部表示，如果國會不上調(diào)目前為14.3萬億美元的債務(wù)上限，美國最早在8月2日就可能拿不出資金償債，并可能發(fā)生違約。但國會中的共和黨和民主黨人以及白宮迄今未能打破圍繞財政政策的政治僵局，各方在支出水平和稅收問題上爭執(zhí)不下。共和黨方面抵制上調(diào)債務(wù)上限，以爭取出臺力度更大的支出削減和財政改革，同時反對任何增稅措施。

　　After the IMF statement on the US was released, John Lipsky, acting managing director, said he was “confident that the participants are well aware of the potential risks of a debt default in the US and will avoid those dangers”.

　　IMF發(fā)布有關(guān)美國的聲明后，該機構(gòu)代理總裁約翰?利普斯基(John Lipsky)表示，他“有信心認(rèn)為，各方都深知美國發(fā)生債務(wù)違約的種種潛在風(fēng)險，并將避免那些危險。”

　　Mr Lipsky added: “It should be self-evident a debt default by the US government . . . would have very serious, far-reaching, dramatic repercussions and that’s why we’re confident that it will be avoided.”

　　利普斯基補充說：“不言而喻，美國政府發(fā)生債務(wù)違約……將產(chǎn)生非常嚴(yán)重、大范圍、戲劇性的沖擊，而這正是為什么我們有信心認(rèn)為這將得到避免。”

　　With the heat rising over the debt ceiling, Tim Geithner, US Treasury secretary, sent a letter to a group of Republicans in the Senate arguing that there was no leeway for the Obama administration to prevent a default by simply prioritising interest payments over the federal government’s other payments.

　　在各方就債務(wù)上限問題的爭論升溫之際，美國財長蒂姆?蓋特納(Tim Geithner)致函一批共和黨參議員，指出如果奧巴馬政府只是把利息支付放在比聯(lián)邦政府其它付款更優(yōu)先的地位，是不足以帶來避免違約的回旋余地的。

　　Some Republicans have accused the White House of “scare tactics” over the debt ceiling, suggesting that even if no deal is reached by early August, the impact would be more like a partial government shutdown than a true default because of the Treasury department’s discretion to make certain payments ahead of others.

　　一些共和黨人指控白宮在債務(wù)上限問題上采用“恐嚇戰(zhàn)術(shù)”，他們提出，即使在8月初不能達成協(xié)議，其影響在更大程度上也將像是政府部門的部分關(guān)閉，而不是真正的違約，因為財政部可酌情優(yōu)先支付某些款項。

　　“This ‘prioritisation’ proposal advocates a radical and deeply irresponsible departure from commitments by presidents of both parties, throughout American history, to honour all of the commitments the nation has made,” Mr Geithner said. “It is unwise, unworkable, unacceptably risky and unfair to the American people. There is no alternative to enactment of a timely increase in the debt limit,” he told senators, including Mitch McConnell, the minority leader.

　　“這種‘劃分優(yōu)先順序’的提議，是在提倡一種激進和極其不負(fù)責(zé)任的做法，背棄了美國歷史上兩黨總統(tǒng)一貫堅持的兌現(xiàn)國家所有承諾的保證，”蓋特納表示。“這種做法不明智、不可行、風(fēng)險高得不可接受，而且對美國人民不公平。除了及時立法上調(diào)債務(wù)上限外，別無他法，”蓋特納對參議院少數(shù)黨領(lǐng)袖米奇?麥康奈爾(Mitch McConnell)等參議員們表示。

　　In its report, the IMF said striking the right balance on fiscal policy represented the main challenge facing US economic officials. The fund said fiscal consolidation needed to proceed and losing fiscal credibility could be very damaging, and is recommending that deficit reduction should begin next year – with the overall effort to include both spending cuts and tax increases through the elimination of special incentives and deductions.

　　IMF在其報告中表示，在財政政策上達到恰當(dāng)?shù)钠胶?，是美國?jīng)濟官員面對的主要挑戰(zhàn)。該機構(gòu)稱，財政整頓需要推進，而失去財政可信度可能造成巨大破壞。IMF建議美國應(yīng)從明年開始削減赤字，整體努力將包括支出削減和增稅（通過取消特別激勵和減免）兩方面。

　　But on the other hand, the IMF cautioned against deep and immediate savings, saying that “an excessively large upfront fiscal adjustment could also significantly weaken domestic demand”. The IMF is expecting the US economy to grow at a rate of 2.5 per cent this year, accelerating to 2.7 per cent in 2012 and 2013.

　　但在另一方面，IMF告誡稱，不應(yīng)尋求當(dāng)即、大幅的支出節(jié)省，表示“幅度過大的初期財政調(diào)整，可能也會顯著削弱國內(nèi)需求”。IMF預(yù)期美國經(jīng)濟今年將增長2.5%，2012年和2013年將加速至2.7%。

　　Among the other risks to the outlook besides fiscal policy, the IMF cited the weak housing market, the potential for a commodity price shock, tight credit supply and the European sovereign debt woes.

　　除了財政政策外，IMF提到美國經(jīng)濟前景面臨的其它風(fēng)險包括：住房市場疲弱、可能發(fā)生的大宗商品價格沖擊、信貸供應(yīng)偏緊，以及歐洲主權(quán)債務(wù)麻煩。