The agriculture ministers of the Group of 20 industrialized and emerging nations, including China, agreed last week to set up a monitoring database for food stocks and production to help producers reliably predict needs -- a laudable goal given that escalating food prices have been behind some of the sharpest inflationary pressures in recent years.

　　Keith Bedford/Bloomberg2011年2月14日，山東省一片農(nóng)田中因干旱而枯死的玉米。包括中國(guó)在內(nèi)的20個(gè)工業(yè)化和新興市場(chǎng)國(guó)家的農(nóng)業(yè)部長(zhǎng)上周同意建立一個(gè)監(jiān)控糧食儲(chǔ)備和生產(chǎn)的數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)，以幫助生產(chǎn)商可靠地預(yù)測(cè)需求。這是一個(gè)值得稱(chēng)許的目標(biāo)，因?yàn)榻陙?lái)不斷上漲的糧食價(jià)格是通脹壓力急劇加大的原因之一。

　　China, which has the unenviable task of feeding a fifth of the world's population amid sharp agriculture price increases, would stand to benefit from such a database even more than others.

　　在農(nóng)產(chǎn)品價(jià)格大幅攀升的背景下，中國(guó)卻還要艱難地養(yǎng)活占世界人口數(shù)量五分之一的人口。相對(duì)其它國(guó)家而言，中國(guó)更能夠從這個(gè)數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)獲得更多的好處。

　　Or would it?

　　但事實(shí)真能如此嗎？

　　China's track record suggests that its disclosures to this imminent G20 database will shed little light on the country's true needs.

　　以往情況表明，中國(guó)為即將推出的G20數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)披露的數(shù)據(jù)幾乎無(wú)法反映中國(guó)的真實(shí)需求。

　　China's grain output has always been a matter for wonder. Last year, official figures show, the country posted its seventh consecutive record harvest. This year, the government is aiming to make it eight in a row, and domestic analysts aren't really doubting its achievability because -- well, because the government says it shall be done.

　　中國(guó)的糧食產(chǎn)量一直令人感到難以理解。官方數(shù)據(jù)顯示，去年中國(guó)公布了連續(xù)七年創(chuàng)下新高的收成數(shù)據(jù)。今年政府的目標(biāo)是第八次打破收成記錄。對(duì)于這個(gè)目標(biāo)能否實(shí)現(xiàn)，國(guó)內(nèi)分析師并不懷疑，因?yàn)?，你知道，政府說(shuō)應(yīng)該達(dá)成這一目標(biāo)。

　　Never mind that prior to 2003, China typically enjoyed two or three bumper grain harvests in a row before a bad bout of weather set farmers back. The record harvests are now happening as ritually as China's near-annual struggle with droughts and floods -- which apparently haven't dented output much over the last seven years.

　　更不用提在2003年之前，當(dāng)時(shí)中國(guó)的農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)尚未受到一輪惡劣天氣的影響，因而總能連續(xù)兩年或三年實(shí)現(xiàn)糧食大豐收。如今中國(guó)幾乎每年都要同洪水和干旱做斗爭(zhēng)，而創(chuàng)下新高的豐收數(shù)據(jù)就像例行公事一樣總會(huì)出現(xiàn)。很顯然，洪水和干旱在過(guò)去七年間沒(méi)有對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)產(chǎn)出造成多大影響。

　　So are the numbers fudged? Consider the corn sector. Last year, China turned net corn importer for the first time in 15 years, importing 1.6 million tons of the grain. Officials said a strong 2010 harvest meant more corn imports were unlikely in 2011, sticking to the government's theme of grain self-sufficiency. They then went ahead and bought 1 million tons of corn from the U.S. in March, denying it to the media only to come back two months later -- after publication of U.S. export data -- and admit that they did buy it after all.

　　那么，這些數(shù)據(jù)是捏造的嗎？以玉米為例，我們看看相關(guān)情況。就在去年，中國(guó)15年來(lái)首次成為玉米凈進(jìn)口國(guó)，總共進(jìn)口了160萬(wàn)噸玉米。有關(guān)官員稱(chēng)，2010年的大豐收意味著2011年玉米進(jìn)口數(shù)量不大可能會(huì)增加，這一說(shuō)法和中國(guó)政府“糧食生產(chǎn)自給自足”的論調(diào)一致。但今年3月，中國(guó)又從美國(guó)進(jìn)口了100萬(wàn)噸玉米，并向媒體否認(rèn)了這一事實(shí)。直到兩個(gè)月后美國(guó)公布了出口數(shù)據(jù)，有關(guān)部門(mén)才承認(rèn)確有其事。

　　Meanwhile, corn output results are still being officially revised -- as with most other grain production statistics -- half a year after the ministry declared a bumper harvest.

　　此外，距農(nóng)業(yè)部宣布大豐收已有半年之久，官方還在修正玉米的產(chǎn)出數(shù)據(jù)。不僅是玉米，大多數(shù)其他糧食的產(chǎn)出數(shù)據(jù)也被同樣被修改了。

　　Confusion over the true volume of China's grain output comes as the country struggles with an increasingly thirsty countryside. Experts are warning that China is facing serious water scarcity in its grain-producing areas. Lars Skov Andersen, a deputy with the EU-China River Basin Management Program and director for global environmental consultancy COWI, said China may lose a third of its agricultural output in a just few years because farmers have been relentlessly plumbing aquifers to supplement parched water resources in the Hai and Yellow River basins.

　　不但糧食產(chǎn)出的真實(shí)情況令人困惑，與此同時(shí)，中國(guó)還在與國(guó)內(nèi)農(nóng)村地區(qū)日益嚴(yán)重的缺水問(wèn)題作斗爭(zhēng)。專(zhuān)家警告說(shuō)，中國(guó)糧食產(chǎn)區(qū)正面臨著嚴(yán)重缺水問(wèn)題。中國(guó)-歐盟流域管理項(xiàng)目（EU-China River Basin Management Program）技援組副組長(zhǎng)、全球環(huán)境咨詢(xún)公司COWI主管安德森（Lars Skov Andersen）說(shuō)，不出數(shù)年中國(guó)的農(nóng)業(yè)產(chǎn)出可能會(huì)減少三分之一，因?yàn)楹：优c黃河流域的農(nóng)民正持續(xù)不斷地抽取含水層的水份以補(bǔ)充枯竭的水資源。

　　The numbers problem isn't confined to the grain sector. As the International Energy Agency, a division of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, has noted, fuzzy data are just as frustrating to the energy market. "China's oil demand outlook has become increasingly crucial for global oil balances," the IEA said in a February report. "Predicting Chinese trends, however, is far from being an exact science, mostly because of huge uncertainties with respect to official data."

　　統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)的問(wèn)題并不局限于糧食部門(mén)。經(jīng)濟(jì)合作與發(fā)展組織（Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development）下設(shè)的國(guó)際能源署（International Energy Agency）指出，模糊的數(shù)據(jù)同樣會(huì)令能源市場(chǎng)受挫。國(guó)際能源署在今年2月的一份報(bào)告中稱(chēng)：從全球石油平衡的角度來(lái)說(shuō)，中國(guó)的石油需求前景越發(fā)變得舉足輕重。但想要準(zhǔn)確預(yù)測(cè)中國(guó)的需求走勢(shì)很不容易，這主要是因?yàn)楣俜綌?shù)據(jù)有著巨大的不確定性。”

　　Some top agriculture officials think it's time to be more frank about China's food needs. Lack of clarity over the country's grain output has arguably been one factor behind sharply higher global grain prices, as even the slightest market chatter about possible Chinese purchases can send prices soaring. The U.S. Grains Council President Thomas Dorr has told Dow Jones Newswires in the past that China should help global grain producers plan ahead by being clearer about the extent of its needs.

　　農(nóng)業(yè)部一些高級(jí)官員認(rèn)為，現(xiàn)在應(yīng)該是更加坦誠(chéng)地披露中國(guó)糧食需求的時(shí)候了。中國(guó)糧食產(chǎn)出數(shù)據(jù)缺乏透明度是否是全球糧價(jià)大幅走高的一個(gè)因素尚無(wú)定論，但只要市場(chǎng)上一傳出中國(guó)可能進(jìn)口糧食的小道消息，糧價(jià)就會(huì)應(yīng)聲大幅上漲。美國(guó)飼料谷物協(xié)會(huì)（U.S. Grains Council）總裁托馬斯•多爾（Thomas Dorr）此前曾告訴道瓊斯通訊社（Dow Jones Newswires），中國(guó)應(yīng)該通過(guò)提高糧食需求數(shù)據(jù)的準(zhǔn)確度，以幫助全球糧食生產(chǎn)商提前規(guī)劃生產(chǎn)。

　　China isn't the only country that produces less-than dependable food output data, but its size and economic importance mean the impact of those distortions is felt globally. If the G20 database is going to work the way it's supposed to, China will have to be willing to put its money where its mouth is.

　　并非只有中國(guó)才存在糧食產(chǎn)出數(shù)據(jù)不可靠的現(xiàn)象，但中國(guó)的需求規(guī)模及其在經(jīng)濟(jì)上的重要性意味著如果數(shù)據(jù)失真，全球都會(huì)受到影響。G20數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)若要發(fā)揮應(yīng)有的作用，中國(guó)就必須切實(shí)行動(dòng)起來(lái)，公布可靠的數(shù)據(jù)。