China is underreporting the amount of steel it makes by about 40m tonnes a year – roughly the amount made by Germany – according to a new analysis that provides insights into the recent high prices for the main raw material used by the world steel industry.

　　一項新的分析指出，中國低報了鋼產(chǎn)量，低報幅度達到每年約4000萬噸，與德國的鋼產(chǎn)量大致相當。對于世界鋼鐵業(yè)主要原材料近期的高價，這項分析提供了洞見。

　　Detective work by Meps, a UK steel consultancy, indicates that Chinese steel output last year was 672m tonnes – nearly half of the world output – as opposed to the 627m tonnes reported by the Chinese authorities.

　　英國鋼鐵咨詢公司Meps的研究分析表明，中國去年的鋼產(chǎn)量達到6.72億噸——接近世界總產(chǎn)量的一半——而不是中國官方報告的6.27億噸。

　　Behind the underreporting, according to Peter Fish, Meps managing director, is that plants that Beijing would like to shut down because they are not economical and produce too much pollution have stayed open to meet local demand.

　　Meps的董事總經(jīng)理彼得?菲什(Peter Fish)表示，這種低報背后的隱情是，那些因經(jīng)濟性不好或造成太多污染而被北京方面勒令關(guān)閉的鋼廠仍然開著，以滿足當?shù)匦枨蟆?

　　Regional data-gathering bodies around China have disguised the fact the mills are still churning out metal by declaring that output is lower than is the case. According to Mr Fish’s analysis, the higher-than-reported steel production creates extra demand for iron ore – the main constituent of steel – and has been one factor keeping prices of the commodity at unprecedented highs, eating into steelmakers’ profit margins globally.

　　中國各地的區(qū)域數(shù)據(jù)收集機構(gòu)通過低報實際產(chǎn)量，掩蓋了那些鋼廠仍在生產(chǎn)鋼材的事實。根據(jù)菲什的分析，高于報告數(shù)據(jù)的實際鋼產(chǎn)量，帶來了對鐵礦石這種主要原料的額外需求，成為推動鐵礦石價格保持在空前高位的因素之一，影響了全球鋼材制造商的利潤率。

　　Since January 2009, iron ore prices have more than doubled, in contrast to a 50 percent rise in benchmark steel prices.

　　自2009年1月以來，鐵礦石價格已上漲一倍多，與此形成反差的是，基準鋼材價格只上漲了50%。

　　Terance Ko, a steel analyst at the Hatch Consulting group in China, said: “Mr Fish’s numbers seem entirely plausible and is in line with our own estimate.”

　　赫氏咨詢(Hatch Consulting)在中國的鋼鐵業(yè)分析師Terance Ko表示：“菲什先生得出的數(shù)字是完全可信的，與我們自己的估算吻合。”

　　Xu Zhongbo, analyst with Beijing Metal Consulting, said steel output figures emanating from China were routinely adjusted to fit stated government policy.

　　北京梅塔科咨詢公司(Beijing Metal Consulting)的分析師許中波表示，中國的鋼產(chǎn)量數(shù)據(jù)常常被調(diào)整，以便與政府公布的政策相符。

　　“If the country is curbing capacity … then [a specific province] will report lower steel production. If the government’s demand to limit production is not too great, the province will report the actual figure,” Mr Xu said. The high prices for iron ore have benefited the three big producers – Rio Tinto, Vale and BHP Billiton. One of the big three – which asked not to be named – said: “We agree steel production last year was higher than the statistics suggest. From an iron ore company perspective, our marketing people expect these things to happen.”

　　“如果國家在遏制產(chǎn)能……那么（某個省）將報告較低的鋼產(chǎn)量。如果政府對限產(chǎn)的要求不是特別強烈，該省將報告實際產(chǎn)量，”許中波表示。鐵礦石價格高企，惠及了三大生產(chǎn)商——力拓(Rio Tinto)、淡水河谷(Vale)以及必和必拓(BHP Billiton)。這三大生產(chǎn)商之一（要求匿名）表示：“我們對去年的鋼產(chǎn)量要高于統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)表示認同。從一家鐵礦石企業(yè)的視角看，這種情況在本公司營銷部門人員的意料之中。”

　　The World Steel Association – the Brussels-based trade group for the industry – relies on official Chinese figures for its own widely followed data. The WSA said there might be “a small amount of underreporting” from China but it was “nothing like” what Mr Fish has reported.

　　總部位于布魯塞爾的行業(yè)組織——世界鋼鐵協(xié)會(World Steel Association)依靠中國提供的官方數(shù)據(jù)來編制其廣受關(guān)注的數(shù)據(jù)。該組織表示，中國的數(shù)據(jù)可能存在“少量低報”，但“根本不像”菲什所報告的那么嚴重。

　　JFE – the big Japanese steel producer – said it recognised there might be a gap between reported and actual production from China. “We believe that as the country continues to reorganise its steel industry to allow for closure of outmoded plants, the gap … will become smaller.”

　　日本大型鋼鐵企業(yè)JFE表示，該公司意識到中國報告的鋼產(chǎn)量和實際的鋼產(chǎn)量可能有差異。“我們相信，隨著中國繼續(xù)重組其鋼鐵業(yè)，使那些陳舊過時的鋼廠得到關(guān)閉，這種差異……將會縮小。”