Economists and others weigh in on the economic effects of the Japanese earthquake and tsunami. Their opinions:

　　經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家等評(píng)說(shuō)日本地震和海嘯的經(jīng)濟(jì)影響，他們的觀點(diǎn)如下：

　　At this stage, it's too early to come up with meaningful estimates of the overall impact of the terrible events in Japan. And, in economic and financial terms, the effects may be dominated by other challenges facing the global economy, including still elevated oil prices and rising interest rates. And much still hinges on the radioactive threat to Japan's more urbanised areas: if that threat fails to transpire, the [1995] Kobe quake provides a useful framework but if the worst happens, all bets are off. -Stephen King, HSBC

　　要對(duì)日本各種嚴(yán)重事件的全面影響做出有實(shí)質(zhì)意義的估計(jì)，目前為時(shí)尚早。另外，經(jīng)濟(jì)和金融方面受到的影響或許主要集中于全球經(jīng)濟(jì)面臨的其他挑戰(zhàn)，比如仍舊高企的油價(jià)和不斷上升的利率。而很多方面還要看日本城市化水平較高地區(qū)面臨的放射威脅：如果這種威脅不成為現(xiàn)實(shí)，1995年神戶地震就是一個(gè)有用的框架；如果最壞的事情發(fā)生，那么怎么賭都是輸?shù)?。──Stephen King，匯豐

　　The government is focused on controlling the mounting nuclear catastrophe. It is obvious to everyone that the national infrastructure has been impaired in a very important way: Ports are wrecked. The damage extends for hundreds of kilometers up and down the coast, according to satellite pictures. The capacity to produce electricity has been reduced by as much as 40% for now, and probably will be limited to less than 80% of pre-quake/tsunami potential for a very long time. Major companies are shut down because their plants are wrecked, or they cannot get electricity to operate, or they cannot ship their products, or their suppliers are impaired. We have yet to experience all the financial dislocations from this disaster. -Carl Weinberg, High Frequency Economics.

　　Kyodo News/Associated Press圖片：超強(qiáng)地震襲擊日本政府關(guān)注的是控制日益嚴(yán)峻的核災(zāi)難。對(duì)于所有人都顯而易見的是，全國(guó)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施受到了一種非常重要的破壞，即港口已經(jīng)癱瘓。從衛(wèi)星照片來(lái)看，綿延海岸線上下幾百公里的地區(qū)都遭到了破壞。目前發(fā)電能力削減了最大40%的幅度，很久一段時(shí)間內(nèi)，可能都會(huì)被限制在地震海嘯前潛能的80%以下。大公司紛紛關(guān)閉，因?yàn)楣S癱瘓，或無(wú)法獲得運(yùn)營(yíng)所需的電能，或產(chǎn)品不能發(fā)貨，或供應(yīng)商遇到損失。這場(chǎng)災(zāi)難造成的金融混亂還沒有完全展現(xiàn)。──Carl Weinberg，High Frequency Economics

　　A lot of physical capital in Japan has been destroyed by the tsunami tragedy alone. And more importantly we will never be able to put a value on the loss of human life or the physiological trauma that has been brought upon the Japanese people from these events. But adding the potential for a serious nuclear accident to the equation is nearly incomprehensible… Policy makers should recognize that meaningful stabilizing actions can add enormous value to an incomprehensible situation where risk premiums have skyrocketed. I hope the BoJ understands that it is the one institution in the world that can act swiftly in financial markets to instill some sense of order. I do not believe that there are many Japanese policy makers (or market participants) who believe the 'long term' prospects for Japan are so dim that we should be at equity valuations which are only a few percentage points from the levels reached in mid 2003 or early 2009. But we need believers with strong hands at the moment and that is what central banks are for! -David Zervos, Jefferies & Co.

　　僅海嘯悲劇就已經(jīng)摧毀了日本的很多有形資本。而更重要的是，我們將永遠(yuǎn)無(wú)法為日本人民在這些事件中遭受的生命損失和生理創(chuàng)傷估價(jià)。而如果再在等式中加上發(fā)生嚴(yán)重核事故的可能性，那就幾乎是無(wú)法想象了。……政策制定者應(yīng)當(dāng)認(rèn)識(shí)到，實(shí)質(zhì)性的穩(wěn)定措施可以給一種無(wú)法想象、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)溢價(jià)飆升的形勢(shì)帶來(lái)巨大的價(jià)值。我希望日本央行知道，它就是世界上唯一能夠在金融市場(chǎng)迅速行動(dòng)、帶來(lái)一定秩序感的機(jī)構(gòu)。我相信，日本不會(huì)有多少政策制定者（或市場(chǎng)參與者）認(rèn)為，日本“長(zhǎng)期”前景如此迷茫，所以股價(jià)水平應(yīng)當(dāng)只比2003年中期或2009年早期所達(dá)水平高幾個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。但我們這個(gè)時(shí)候需要有信心、有魄力的人，這個(gè)時(shí)候央行就應(yīng)該站出來(lái)！──David Zervos，Jefferies & Co.

　　The near-term impact on Japanese growth is likely to be negative and potentially quite large. However, by the end of this year the reconstruction effort is likely to get underway and provide a substantial boost to growth. The big uncertainty about this disaster (and what sets it apart from other such disasters) is that roughly 10% of electricity generation capacity (both nuclear and coal) may be off line for a few months, until oil- and gas-fired plants can ramp up.. In the near-term, this could have major negative ramifications for the Japanese industrial sectors; some steel and automotive factories have already been closed. -Nariman Behravesh, IHS Global Insight

　　對(duì)日本經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的短期影響可能是負(fù)面的，而且有可能非常巨大。但到今年年底，重建工作有可能展開，為增長(zhǎng)提供強(qiáng)大推力。這場(chǎng)災(zāi)難最大的不確定性（也是它有別于其他類似災(zāi)難的地方）是，幾個(gè)月內(nèi)，約10%的發(fā)電能力（包括核電和煤電）或許無(wú)法上網(wǎng)，直到以石油和天然氣為動(dòng)力的火電廠能夠趕上來(lái)。短期內(nèi)，這有可能對(duì)日本工業(yè)部門造成重大負(fù)面影響；部分鋼鐵和汽車工廠就已經(jīng)關(guān)閉。──Nariman Behravesh，IHS Global Insight

　　Of the four broad commodity sectors, we believe energy markets are likely to be most affected since the country imports approximately 85% of its energy use, with nuclear power representing just over 10% of energy consumed in the country. In July 2007, when the Niigita-Chuestsu-Oku earthquake led to the shutdown of the Kashiwasaki-Kariwa nuclear plant, lost nuclear production capacity had to be replaced by other fuel sources such as thermal coal, natural gas, petroleum products (and direct crude burning). -Torsten Slok, Deutsche Bank Securities

　　由于在日本，核能發(fā)電只能滿足其國(guó)內(nèi)能源消費(fèi)需求的10%，大約85%的能源需求要靠進(jìn)口滿足。因此我們預(yù)計(jì)，在大宗商品的四大門類中，能源市場(chǎng)有可能受到最嚴(yán)重的影響。2007年7月日本新瀉地震導(dǎo)致柏崎刈羽（Kashiwasaki-Kariwa）核電站關(guān)閉，因此損失的電力供應(yīng)得靠熱煤、天然氣、石油產(chǎn)品（原油直接燃燒）等燃料來(lái)滿足。──Torsten Slok,德銀證券（Deutsche Bank Securities）

　　Though initially, the interruptions in Japan's economy seem to have depressed oil prices, any turn to rebuilding there could have the opposite effect. Longer-term, any departure from nuclear plans could redouble any upward pressure on oil. (Here, of course, it is important to remember that oil prices were already above fundamentals as a result of the North African and Middle Eastern turmoil, which has not disappeared even as the headlines remain dominated by Japan.) -Milton Ezrati, Lord, Abbett & Co.

　　雖然一開始，日本經(jīng)濟(jì)受到的干擾似乎抑制了油價(jià)，但只要震后重建開始，油價(jià)就會(huì)上漲。而如果放棄核計(jì)劃，結(jié)果只會(huì)加重油價(jià)上行的壓力（這里當(dāng)然不要忘了由于北非和中東的動(dòng)亂局勢(shì)，油價(jià)已經(jīng)超出正常水平。雖然日本地震占據(jù)了各大報(bào)紙的頭條，但上述地區(qū)的動(dòng)蕩并未結(jié)束）。──Milton Ezrati,Lord, Abbett & Co

　　The four prefectures most heavily affected by the Tohoku earthquake are Iwate, Miyagi, Fukushima and Ibaraki. This region accounts for about 6-7% of the overall Japanese economy… The latest earthquake is expected to inflict more human and physical damage than the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake of 1995. Given the region's character as a 'trading' economy, there is also a need to consider impacts on other regions. Based on currently available information, we estimate that damages could exceed 15 trillion yen (3% of GDP). -Kyohei Morita and Yuichiro Nagai, Barclays Capital

　　此次日本東北部發(fā)生地震，受災(zāi)最嚴(yán)重的四個(gè)縣分別是巖手縣、宮城縣，福島縣和茨城縣。這一地區(qū)在日本經(jīng)濟(jì)中所占的比重大約為6%-7%。相比1995年的阪神大地震，此次地震會(huì)造成更多的人員和財(cái)產(chǎn)損失。由于這一地區(qū)的特點(diǎn)是以貿(mào)易經(jīng)濟(jì)為主，也有必要考慮地震對(duì)其它地區(qū)的影響。根據(jù)現(xiàn)有信息，我們估計(jì)損失可能超過(guò)15萬(wàn)億日?qǐng)A（約占日本GDP的3％）。──Kyohei Morita 和Yuichiro Nagai,巴克萊資本

　　Economic output from the affected region plus its connections to the rest of the economy have darkened the outlook. The cost of rebuilding collides with low levels of insurance coverage, and may require tax increases or much higher government deficit spending. In addition, power supplies will be limited, affecting the broader economy, with transportation services disrupted to the north of Tokyo, and tourism likely to be drastically affected for months. -Ron Napier, SBC Global

　　受災(zāi)地區(qū)的經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)出以及受災(zāi)地區(qū)和日本其它地區(qū)的經(jīng)濟(jì)聯(lián)系令經(jīng)濟(jì)前景一片黯淡。重建成本加上保險(xiǎn)賠付的比例較低可能會(huì)令政府增加稅收或擴(kuò)大赤字支出。此外，電力供應(yīng)將受到限制，這將影響更大范圍內(nèi)的經(jīng)濟(jì)，東京以北的公共交通中斷，旅游業(yè)在未來(lái)數(shù)月可能會(huì)深受影響。──Ron Napier,SBC Global

　　We've been asked by some customers whether Japan was a major seller of Treasury securities specifically in response to the Kobe earthquake in 1995. We don't know definitively, but the TIC data does suggest some selling - presumably by insurers - in response to that earthquake, but not for several months after the event, which occurred in January of 1995. -Nancy Vanden Houten, Stone & McCarthy Research

　　一直有客戶問(wèn)我們，當(dāng)年為了應(yīng)對(duì)1995年1月發(fā)生的阪神大地震，日本政府是否賣出了大量美國(guó)國(guó)債。我們并不確切了解，但據(jù)美國(guó)財(cái)政部國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)（Treasury International Capital，TIC）數(shù)據(jù)顯示為了應(yīng)對(duì)那次地震，的確有人在賣出美國(guó)國(guó)債，據(jù)推測(cè)是保險(xiǎn)公司，但并沒有延續(xù)數(shù)月之久。──Nancy Vanden Houten,Stone & McCarthy Research