The chairman of Bank of China has dismissed suggestions that China could face its own banking crisis as a result of an unprecedented expansion of state-directed credit in the past two years.

　　中國(guó)銀行(Bank of China)董事長(zhǎng)肖鋼對(duì)外界的一些說(shuō)法表示不以為意，這些說(shuō)法認(rèn)為，過(guò)去兩年中國(guó)在政府指令下信貸空前擴(kuò)張，其結(jié)果是中國(guó)可能面對(duì)自己的銀行業(yè)危機(jī)。

　　"Some analysis and estimates from outside say there could be a financial crisis in China in the next few years,” Xiao Gang, chairman the country’s third-largest lender by market value, said on the sidelines of the annual National People’s Congress in Beijing.

　　 “外面有一些分析和估算，稱(chēng)未來(lái)幾年內(nèi)中國(guó)可能發(fā)生一場(chǎng)金融危機(jī)，”這位中國(guó)市值第三大銀行的董事長(zhǎng)在北京全國(guó)人大年會(huì)間隙表示。

　　"But I think the chances of a big increase in bad loans in the banking sector are very small.”

　　 “但我認(rèn)為，銀行業(yè)不良貸款大幅增加的幾率很小。”

　　Chinese banks lent about Rmb17,500bn ($2,667bn) in the past two years alone, compared with just more than Rmb4,500bn in 2008, as Beijing responded to the global economic crisis by opening the credit floodgates and ramping up infrastructure construction.

　　僅僅在過(guò)去兩年，中國(guó)各銀行就發(fā)放了大約15.7萬(wàn)億元人民幣（合2.667萬(wàn)億美元）的貸款，而2008年的新增銀行貸款僅為略高于4.5萬(wàn)億元人民幣。面對(duì)當(dāng)時(shí)的全球經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)，北京方面的回應(yīng)是打開(kāi)信貸閘門(mén)，加大基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)力度。

　　Much of the new lending found its way into real estate and local government infrastructure projects. Analysts and even some Chinese bankers say the credit binge has helped fuel inflation and many of the loans will not be repaid.

　　新增貸款中有很大一部分流入了房地產(chǎn)和地方政府基建項(xiàng)目。分析師——甚至中國(guó)一些銀行業(yè)人士——表示，這種信貸狂潮加劇了通脹，而很多貸款將無(wú)法償還。

　　Mr Xiao acknowledged that non-performing loan ratios at Chinese banks were almost certain to rise from their current low levels of below 1 per cent, but he said there would not be a big jump in bad credit.

　　肖鋼承認(rèn)，幾乎可以肯定，中國(guó)各銀行的不良貸款率會(huì)從目前不到1%的較低水平上升，但他表示，不會(huì)出現(xiàn)不良信貸大幅飆升的情況。

　　Fitch, the rating agency, issued a warning last June and again in November that China was likely to face a banking crisis within the next three years as a result of the credit surge, according to the standardised risk assessment it does for most large economies.

　　評(píng)級(jí)機(jī)構(gòu)惠譽(yù)(Fitch)在去年6月和11月兩次警告稱(chēng)，根據(jù)該機(jī)構(gòu)對(duì)多數(shù)大型經(jīng)濟(jì)體進(jìn)行的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估，信貸激增的結(jié)果是：中國(guó)可能在未來(lái)三年內(nèi)面對(duì)一場(chǎng)銀行業(yè)危機(jī)。

　　Mr Xiao said Chinese banks had so far not seen any widespread examples of distressed borrowers unable to repay loans and he expressed confidence that Beijing would be able to maintain fast and stable growth in the coming years.

　　肖鋼表示，中國(guó)各銀行迄今沒(méi)有看到大量借款者陷入困境、無(wú)力償還貸款的情況，同時(shí)他表示，對(duì)于中國(guó)政府能夠在未來(lái)幾年保持快速穩(wěn)定的增長(zhǎng)抱有信心。

　　He said the fact Chinese banks had expanded loans rapidly in recent years to individual retail customers to buy houses and cars also lowered the risk of a banking crisis.

　　他表示，中國(guó)各銀行近年對(duì)買(mǎi)房和買(mǎi)車(chē)的個(gè)人零售客戶(hù)大幅增加放貸，也降低了銀行業(yè)危機(jī)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

　　"Everybody knows Chinese people have a tradition of repaying debt and will only borrow what they can afford to pay back in the future,” Mr Xiao said.

　　“誰(shuí)都知道中國(guó)人有還債的傳統(tǒng)，而且只會(huì)借自己將來(lái)有能力償還的金額，”肖鋼表示。

　　Cultural aversion to debt delinquency was a common argument put forward during consumer credit booms in countries such as South Korea and Taiwan prior to the Asian financial crisis – but in both those cases borrowing habits quickly changed, leading to a rapid build-up of bad loans.

　　亞洲金融危機(jī)之前，在韓國(guó)、臺(tái)灣等經(jīng)濟(jì)體經(jīng)歷消費(fèi)信貸繁榮期間，“文化上反感欠債”曾是一種常見(jiàn)的說(shuō)辭，但在韓國(guó)和臺(tái)灣，人們的借款習(xí)慣迅速發(fā)生了改變，導(dǎo)致不良貸款快速累積。

　　China’s last financial crisis peaked more than a decade ago when the government bailed out and restructured the state-owned banking sector following a state-directed lending binge in the mid-1990s that resulted in bad debt ratios as high as 50 per cent by some estimates.

　　中國(guó)的上一場(chǎng)金融危機(jī)在10多年前達(dá)到頂峰，當(dāng)時(shí)政府對(duì)國(guó)有的銀行業(yè)進(jìn)行了紓困和重組。此前在90年代中期發(fā)生了政府指令下的放貸狂潮，按照一些人的估算，那場(chǎng)放貸狂潮造成高達(dá)50%的不良貸款率。

　　The government has ordered banks to lend less this year and has lifted the ratio of deposits they must hold in reserve with the central bank at least five times since last October.

　　中國(guó)政府已指示各銀行今年減少放貸，自去年10月以來(lái)，還至少5次提高了銀行存款準(zhǔn)備金率。

　　Mr Xiao said BoC expected to extend about Rmb600bn in new loans this year, compared with about Rmb620bn last year, but this was unlikely to have a big impact on profits as rising interest rates would provide higher returns on loans and bonds.

　　肖鋼表示，中行預(yù)計(jì)今年發(fā)放約6000億元人民幣新貸款，低于去年的大約6200億元人民幣，但這不太可能對(duì)利潤(rùn)造成重大影響，因?yàn)槔噬仙龑⑻岣哔J款和債券的回報(bào)率。