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For the euro to grow into a happy and healthy adult, many things must happen. Most importantly, Europe needs to fix its banking system. Many European banks, starting with Germany's, are dangerously over-leveraged, undercapitalized and exposed to Greek, Irish and Portuguese debt. Rigorous stress tests followed by capital injections are the most important step that governments can take to secure the euro's place.
歐元想要健康快樂(lè)地長(zhǎng)大,必須具備很多條件。其中最重要的是歐洲必須修復(fù)其銀行體系。從德國(guó)的那些銀行算起,歐洲許多銀行的過(guò)度杠桿化和資本不足問(wèn)題都已達(dá)到了危險(xiǎn)的程度,它們?cè)谙ED、愛(ài)爾蘭和葡萄牙的債務(wù)上存在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)敞口。想要確保歐元的地位,嚴(yán)格的壓力測(cè)試加上資本注入是歐元區(qū)各成員國(guó)政府所能采取的最重要措施。
Since European leaders seem fixated on what to do after Greece's rescue package runs out in 2013 -- often, it appears, to the neglect of more immediate problems -- they should also contemplate transferring responsibility for supervising their banks from the national level to the newly created European Banking Authority. The mistaken belief that a single currency is compatible with separate national bank regulators is, at the most basic level, why Europe is in the fix that it's in.
David Gothard歐洲各國(guó)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人似乎對(duì)2013年希臘救助計(jì)劃到期后該做些什么非常關(guān)注(這往往導(dǎo)致他們忽視了更為迫切的問(wèn)題),但他們也應(yīng)該仔細(xì)考慮讓新設(shè)立的歐洲銀行管理局(European Banking Authority)取代各國(guó)監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)對(duì)歐洲各國(guó)的銀行實(shí)施監(jiān)督。那種認(rèn)為單一貨幣體系和各國(guó)獨(dú)立的銀行監(jiān)督管理機(jī)構(gòu)能夠兼容的錯(cuò)誤理念是歐洲陷入當(dāng)前困境的最根本原因。
Europe's budget deficits are largely a result of the continent's festering banking crisis. Greece may be an exception, but it's one of a kind. The euro area would clearly benefit from stronger discipline on borrowers and lenders. However, it is fantastical to think that this can be achieved by imposing Germanic debt ceilings Continent-wide.
歐洲預(yù)算赤字問(wèn)題主要是由歐洲大陸日益惡化的銀行業(yè)危機(jī)引發(fā)的。希臘也許是一個(gè)例外,因?yàn)橄ED的情況非常特殊。對(duì)借貸雙方實(shí)施更加嚴(yán)格的紀(jì)律約束無(wú)疑對(duì)歐元區(qū)有益。但如果認(rèn)為只要把德國(guó)為債務(wù)設(shè)置上限的做法推廣到歐洲各國(guó)就可以約束信貸紀(jì)律,也未免過(guò)于不切實(shí)際了。
The only discipline guaranteed to prevent fiscal excesses is market discipline. Reckless borrowers and lenders must be made to pay for their actions. Governments with unsustainable debts should be forced to restructure them, damage to their sovereign creditworthiness or not. The banks that lent to them should similarly suffer consequences, as should the bondholders who provided those banks with funds.
避免財(cái)政過(guò)度擴(kuò)張的唯一有效手段是市場(chǎng)約束。不計(jì)后果的借貸雙方必須為他們的行為付出代價(jià)。面臨債務(wù)不可持續(xù)問(wèn)題的政府必須對(duì)債務(wù)進(jìn)行重組,無(wú)論這樣做是否會(huì)令其主權(quán)信用受到損害。向政府提供貸款的銀行同樣要為自己的行為承擔(dān)后果,向銀行提供資金的債券持有人也不例外。
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