There has been plenty of talk about fighting inflation at China’s annual National People’s Congress this week and a lot of talk about boosting demand. But one way of addressing both aims – a stronger currency – has been almost completely ignored by the top leadership. Yi Gang, central bank deputy governor, has merely claimed that the renminbi’s current exchange rate, 3.9 per cent stronger against the US dollar since June last year, is the closest it has been to “equilibrium”.

　　在本周舉行的中國(guó)全國(guó)人大年會(huì)上，許多人談?wù)摽箵敉?，也有許多人談?wù)摯龠M(jìn)需求。但是同時(shí)解決這兩個(gè)問(wèn)題的一個(gè)方式——人民幣升值——卻幾乎完全被最高領(lǐng)導(dǎo)層忽視。中國(guó)央行副行長(zhǎng)易綱只是宣稱，人民幣當(dāng)前匯率最接近“均衡水平”。自去年6月以來(lái)，人民幣兌美元匯率升值3.9%。

　　As much as the politburo would like the currency question to go away, it is unlikely to. US Treasury secretary Tim Geithner’s assertion last week that the renminbi remains “substantially undervalued” marked a re-emergence of a narrative that had faded since June, when the People’s Bank said it was replacing its two-year-old peg with a managed float.

　　盡管中共中央政治局很希望匯率問(wèn)題就此消失，但這是不太可能的。美國(guó)財(cái)長(zhǎng)蒂姆·蓋特納(Tim Geithner)上周斷言，人民幣仍“被大幅低估”，這標(biāo)志著自去年6月以來(lái)消退的說(shuō)法卷土重來(lái)——當(dāng)時(shí)中國(guó)人民銀行(PBOC)表示，用有管理的浮動(dòng)匯率制度取代實(shí)施了兩年的盯住美元匯率制度。

　　Today’s trade data may show a halving of China’s trade surplus over the first two months, year on year, strengthening the impression that a rebalancing is under way. But even if the full-year surplus falls as much as it did last year, China will still be set for a mega-surplus of some $170bn. As Capital Economics points out, a US index of Chinese export prices was up by less than 1 percent in dollar terms in December. In other words, once currency appreciation is factored in, factory gate prices in renminbi continue to fall. The external pressure will stay on.

　　今日發(fā)布的貿(mào)易數(shù)據(jù)可能顯示，今年頭兩個(gè)月中國(guó)的貿(mào)易盈余同比減半，進(jìn)一步讓人們覺(jué)得中國(guó)正在再平衡。然而，即便今年全年的貿(mào)易盈余降幅與去年一樣，中國(guó)仍將出現(xiàn)約1700億美元的巨額盈余。正如資本經(jīng)濟(jì)(Capital Economics)指出的那樣，按美元計(jì)算，一個(gè)衡量中國(guó)出口價(jià)格的美國(guó)指數(shù)去年12月的漲幅不到1%。換言之，一旦計(jì)入貨幣升值因素，以人民幣計(jì)價(jià)的出廠價(jià)格仍在繼續(xù)下降。外部壓力仍將持續(xù)。

　　Internally, too, resentments will fester. China has not resolved the tension between the tradable goods sector – which says it cannot cope with appreciation of more than 3 to 5 per cent a year – and consumers, who must surely want the greater purchasing power that cheaper imports would bring. Perhaps the most significant disclosure from the congress so far is that, in 2011 for the first time, China will spend more on internal security than on the military. In spite of the choreographed calm at the Great Hall of the People, Beijing is braced for unrest.

　　在中國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)，不滿也將滋長(zhǎng)。中國(guó)沒(méi)有解決可貿(mào)易商品部門與消費(fèi)者之間的緊張關(guān)系——前者稱無(wú)法應(yīng)對(duì)每年逾3%-5%的升值，而后者肯定想要進(jìn)口價(jià)格降低帶來(lái)的更大購(gòu)買力。本屆中國(guó)人大年會(huì)迄今或許最為重大的聲明是，中國(guó)2011年的維穩(wěn)支出將首次超過(guò)軍事。盡管人民大會(huì)堂內(nèi)處于精心編排的平靜，但中國(guó)政府正準(zhǔn)備迎接不安定。