A resurgent auto industry has weathered the supply-chain hitches that stifled production during the spring and is poised to double the pace of U.S. growth in the third quarter, according to some estimates. But that may not be enough to help beleaguered consumers and businesses get a flagging recovery back on track.

　　據(jù)一些估計(jì)數(shù)字顯示，復(fù)蘇的汽車業(yè)已經(jīng)度過了春季令生產(chǎn)受到抑制的供應(yīng)鏈問題，三季度美國汽車業(yè)的增速有望提高一倍。不過，這可能不足以幫助陷入困境的消費(fèi)者和企業(yè)使乏力的復(fù)蘇恢復(fù)勢(shì)頭。

　　The gross domestic product report due Friday from the Commerce Department is expected to show the economy grew at a 1.8% annual rate in the second quarter, down from 1.9% in the first quarter and the slowest pace in a year, according to economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires.

　　美國商務(wù)部將于周五公布國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)報(bào)告。據(jù)道瓊斯通訊社調(diào)查的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家預(yù)測(cè)，二季度美國經(jīng)濟(jì)年化增速將為1.8%，較一季度的1.9%有所下降，也是一年來最低的。

　　The pace of the economy in the spring was a disappointment, caused largely by shortages of key automobile parts following Japan's earthquake and tsunami. Federal Reserve figures show that U.S. auto plants cut back motor vehicle production 5.9% in the second quarter from the first quarter -- enough to significantly slow the economy.

　　春季美國經(jīng)濟(jì)的增速令人失望，主要是因?yàn)槿毡镜卣鸷[后主要汽車部件的短缺。美國聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備委員會(huì)(Federal Reserve)的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，二季度美國汽車生產(chǎn)較一季度減產(chǎn)5.9%，足以令經(jīng)濟(jì)增速嚴(yán)重放緩。

　　With supply chains in better order, auto production is bouncing back. Toyota Motor Corp. has said it expects its North American production to return to normal this month. Volkswagen AG is ramping up production at a new plant in Chattanooga, Tenn. General Motors Co. is in the process of adding a third shift at an assembly plant in Flint, Mich.

　　在供應(yīng)鏈狀況有所好轉(zhuǎn)的情況下，汽車生產(chǎn)開始恢復(fù)。豐田汽車(Toyota Motor Corp.)說，預(yù)計(jì)該公司在北美的生產(chǎn)本月將恢復(fù)正常。大眾汽車(Volkswagen AG)開始提高田納西州查塔努加(Chattanooga)一家新建工廠的產(chǎn)量。通用汽車(General Motors Co.)則在為密歇根州弗林特(Flint)一家組裝廠增設(shè)第三個(gè)班次的過程中。

　　The jump in car manufacturing should filter into employment and spending as well. As auto production picks up, then, so could jobs and wages -- which in turn could help consumer spending. In an optimistic scenario, that might create a scenario where overall spending and hiring are feeding on one another, and putting the economy on the path to stronger growth.

　　汽車生產(chǎn)的大幅增加應(yīng)該也會(huì)促進(jìn)就業(yè)和支出。隨著汽車生產(chǎn)的好轉(zhuǎn)，就業(yè)崗位可能會(huì)增加、工資可能會(huì)上漲，進(jìn)而可能幫助消費(fèi)者支出。在樂觀的情況下，這可能形成一種良性循環(huán)，整體支出和就業(yè)互相促進(jìn)，推動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)更強(qiáng)勁地增長。

　　But the economy may be too weak for such a virtuous circle to take hold. Auto sales were sluggish in May and June, in part because the disasters in Japan led to fewer cars on dealer lots, but also because higher gasoline prices and worries over the job market made consumers less willing to spend.

　　不過，經(jīng)濟(jì)可能過于疲弱，難以令這樣一個(gè)良性循環(huán)站住腳跟。5月和6月，汽車銷售疲軟，一方面是因?yàn)槿毡镜臑?zāi)難導(dǎo)致經(jīng)銷商庫存的汽車減少，另一方面是因?yàn)槠蛢r(jià)格的上漲以及對(duì)就業(yè)市場(chǎng)的擔(dān)憂削弱了消費(fèi)者支出的意愿。

　　Indeed, the sluggish sales prompted some auto makers to rein in production plans a bit for the third quarter, noted J.P. Morgan economist Michael Feroli. He forecast that GDP will increase at a 2.5% rate in the third quarter, and that auto production will lift growth by between a half and full percentage point. “It's still certainly going to be a positive,” he said.

　　實(shí)際上，摩根大通(J.P. Morgan)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家費(fèi)洛里(Michael Feroli)指出，疲弱的銷售促使一些汽車廠商三季度小幅縮減生產(chǎn)計(jì)劃。他預(yù)測(cè)，三季度GDP將以2.5%的速度增長，汽車生產(chǎn)將使經(jīng)濟(jì)增速獲益0.5至1個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。他說，汽車生產(chǎn)仍然肯定會(huì)推動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長。

　　The gain may be ephemeral, however, as fallout from the housing bust and the recession persists.

　　不過，經(jīng)濟(jì)增速的提高可能是短暫的，因?yàn)闃鞘信菽屏押退ネ说暮蠊廊怀掷m(xù)難消。

　　"I don't think the bounce back in auto production in and of itself is going to mean that much," said Goldman Sachs economist Jan Hatzius. "It's not going to be able to carry the third quarter."

　　高盛(Goldman Sachs)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家哈祖斯(Jan Hatzius)說，我認(rèn)為，汽車生產(chǎn)的復(fù)蘇本身并沒有太大的意義。這將無法影響三季度。

　　Mr. Hatzius pointed out that data so far for July, including sharply lower consumer sentiment figures, suggest the quarter has gotten off to a poor start. His takeaway is that while temporary factors such as supply-chain disruptions have hurt the economy, they can't explain all of what's going on.

　　哈祖斯指出，7月份至今的數(shù)據(jù)顯示三季度開局不利，其中包括大幅下滑的消費(fèi)者信心數(shù)據(jù)。他的解釋是，盡管供應(yīng)鏈?zhǔn)艿礁蓴_等暫時(shí)的因素?fù)p害了經(jīng)濟(jì)，卻并不是造成經(jīng)濟(jì)處于現(xiàn)在這種局面的唯一原因。

　　He suspects the underlying problem is that badly damaged balance sheets have made it more difficult for households to adjust to shocks that they used to absorb readily.

　　他猜測(cè)根本的問題是受到嚴(yán)重?fù)p害的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債狀況增大了家庭適應(yīng)沖擊的難度，而過去他們很容易消化這類沖擊。

　　When gasoline prices go up, for example, people can't as easily tap into savings or borrow to cover the higher cost, so they quickly cut back on other items.

　　舉例來講，汽油價(jià)格上漲時(shí)，人們無法像過去那樣輕松地動(dòng)用存款或借款支付更高的成本，所以他們很快會(huì)削減其他項(xiàng)目上的支出。

　　That lack of flexibility is damping consumer spending, which in turn is making businesses less willing to make new hires. The result is an economy that, despite the occasional glimmer of hope, can't grow very fast.

　　這種缺乏彈性的狀況開始打擊消費(fèi)者支出，進(jìn)而削弱了企業(yè)招聘新人的意愿。結(jié)果就造成經(jīng)濟(jì)無法很快增長，盡管偶爾出現(xiàn)微弱的希望。

　　"The economy is just weaker and it's going to stay weaker,"said Mr. Hatzius. "That's the unfortunate conclusion here."

　　哈祖斯說，經(jīng)濟(jì)只是變得更加疲弱，并將保持更加疲弱的狀態(tài)。這就是我們得出的不幸結(jié)論。