A resurgent auto industry has weathered the supply-chain hitches that stifled production during the spring and is poised to double the pace of U.S. growth in the third quarter, according to some estimates. But that may not be enough to help beleaguered consumers and businesses get a flagging recovery back on track.

　　據一些估計數字顯示，復蘇的汽車業(yè)已經度過了春季令生產受到抑制的供應鏈問題，三季度美國汽車業(yè)的增速有望提高一倍。不過，這可能不足以幫助陷入困境的消費者和企業(yè)使乏力的復蘇恢復勢頭。

　　The gross domestic product report due Friday from the Commerce Department is expected to show the economy grew at a 1.8% annual rate in the second quarter, down from 1.9% in the first quarter and the slowest pace in a year, according to economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires.

　　美國商務部將于周五公布國內生產總值(GDP)報告。據道瓊斯通訊社調查的經濟學家預測，二季度美國經濟年化增速將為1.8%，較一季度的1.9%有所下降，也是一年來最低的。

　　The pace of the economy in the spring was a disappointment, caused largely by shortages of key automobile parts following Japan's earthquake and tsunami. Federal Reserve figures show that U.S. auto plants cut back motor vehicle production 5.9% in the second quarter from the first quarter -- enough to significantly slow the economy.

　　春季美國經濟的增速令人失望，主要是因為日本地震海嘯后主要汽車部件的短缺。美國聯邦儲備委員會(Federal Reserve)的數據顯示，二季度美國汽車生產較一季度減產5.9%，足以令經濟增速嚴重放緩。

　　With supply chains in better order, auto production is bouncing back. Toyota Motor Corp. has said it expects its North American production to return to normal this month. Volkswagen AG is ramping up production at a new plant in Chattanooga, Tenn. General Motors Co. is in the process of adding a third shift at an assembly plant in Flint, Mich.

　　在供應鏈狀況有所好轉的情況下，汽車生產開始恢復。豐田汽車(Toyota Motor Corp.)說，預計該公司在北美的生產本月將恢復正常。大眾汽車(Volkswagen AG)開始提高田納西州查塔努加(Chattanooga)一家新建工廠的產量。通用汽車(General Motors Co.)則在為密歇根州弗林特(Flint)一家組裝廠增設第三個班次的過程中。

　　The jump in car manufacturing should filter into employment and spending as well. As auto production picks up, then, so could jobs and wages -- which in turn could help consumer spending. In an optimistic scenario, that might create a scenario where overall spending and hiring are feeding on one another, and putting the economy on the path to stronger growth.

　　汽車生產的大幅增加應該也會促進就業(yè)和支出。隨著汽車生產的好轉，就業(yè)崗位可能會增加、工資可能會上漲，進而可能幫助消費者支出。在樂觀的情況下，這可能形成一種良性循環(huán)，整體支出和就業(yè)互相促進，推動經濟更強勁地增長。

　　But the economy may be too weak for such a virtuous circle to take hold. Auto sales were sluggish in May and June, in part because the disasters in Japan led to fewer cars on dealer lots, but also because higher gasoline prices and worries over the job market made consumers less willing to spend.

　　不過，經濟可能過于疲弱，難以令這樣一個良性循環(huán)站住腳跟。5月和6月，汽車銷售疲軟，一方面是因為日本的災難導致經銷商庫存的汽車減少，另一方面是因為汽油價格的上漲以及對就業(yè)市場的擔憂削弱了消費者支出的意愿。

　　Indeed, the sluggish sales prompted some auto makers to rein in production plans a bit for the third quarter, noted J.P. Morgan economist Michael Feroli. He forecast that GDP will increase at a 2.5% rate in the third quarter, and that auto production will lift growth by between a half and full percentage point. “It's still certainly going to be a positive,” he said.

　　實際上，摩根大通(J.P. Morgan)經濟學家費洛里(Michael Feroli)指出，疲弱的銷售促使一些汽車廠商三季度小幅縮減生產計劃。他預測，三季度GDP將以2.5%的速度增長，汽車生產將使經濟增速獲益0.5至1個百分點。他說，汽車生產仍然肯定會推動經濟增長。

　　The gain may be ephemeral, however, as fallout from the housing bust and the recession persists.

　　不過，經濟增速的提高可能是短暫的，因為樓市泡沫破裂和衰退的后果依然持續(xù)難消。

　　"I don't think the bounce back in auto production in and of itself is going to mean that much," said Goldman Sachs economist Jan Hatzius. "It's not going to be able to carry the third quarter."

　　高盛(Goldman Sachs)經濟學家哈祖斯(Jan Hatzius)說，我認為，汽車生產的復蘇本身并沒有太大的意義。這將無法影響三季度。

　　Mr. Hatzius pointed out that data so far for July, including sharply lower consumer sentiment figures, suggest the quarter has gotten off to a poor start. His takeaway is that while temporary factors such as supply-chain disruptions have hurt the economy, they can't explain all of what's going on.

　　哈祖斯指出，7月份至今的數據顯示三季度開局不利，其中包括大幅下滑的消費者信心數據。他的解釋是，盡管供應鏈受到干擾等暫時的因素損害了經濟，卻并不是造成經濟處于現在這種局面的唯一原因。

　　He suspects the underlying problem is that badly damaged balance sheets have made it more difficult for households to adjust to shocks that they used to absorb readily.

　　他猜測根本的問題是受到嚴重損害的資產負債狀況增大了家庭適應沖擊的難度，而過去他們很容易消化這類沖擊。

　　When gasoline prices go up, for example, people can't as easily tap into savings or borrow to cover the higher cost, so they quickly cut back on other items.

　　舉例來講，汽油價格上漲時，人們無法像過去那樣輕松地動用存款或借款支付更高的成本，所以他們很快會削減其他項目上的支出。

　　That lack of flexibility is damping consumer spending, which in turn is making businesses less willing to make new hires. The result is an economy that, despite the occasional glimmer of hope, can't grow very fast.

　　這種缺乏彈性的狀況開始打擊消費者支出，進而削弱了企業(yè)招聘新人的意愿。結果就造成經濟無法很快增長，盡管偶爾出現微弱的希望。

　　"The economy is just weaker and it's going to stay weaker,"said Mr. Hatzius. "That's the unfortunate conclusion here."

　　哈祖斯說，經濟只是變得更加疲弱，并將保持更加疲弱的狀態(tài)。這就是我們得出的不幸結論。