The U.S. economy resembles a patient who survived a heart attack, and tells his doctor: "I took your advice, swallowed the pills and I still don't feel well."

　　美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)就像一位心臟病發(fā)作后死里逃生的病人，他對(duì)醫(yī)生說(shuō)：我聽從你的建議吞下了那些藥片，但我感覺依然不好。

　　We were warned that the post-recession recovery, now marking its second anniversary, would be painfully slow. It's worse than predicted. And it's hardly reassuring for Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke to concede: "We don't have a precise read on why this slower pace of growth is persisting."

　　我們被警告說(shuō)，目前正進(jìn)入第三個(gè)年頭的衰退后經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇，其速度將令人痛苦地緩慢。復(fù)蘇情況比預(yù)期的差。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)（Federal Reserve）主席貝南克（Ben Bernanke）的話也難以令人安心。他說(shuō)：我們無(wú)法對(duì)于美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)為何持續(xù)以較慢的速度增長(zhǎng)做出精確的解讀。

　　Although U.S. unemployment is at 9.1% and forecast to remain above 8% through next year, the Fed says it won't do more to help the economy. The adrenalin of fiscal stimulus is wearing off. And Washington is fixated on deficits and debt ceilings. Is there really nothing to be done to help the economy heal?

　　雖然美國(guó)的失業(yè)率目前為9.1%，并且預(yù)計(jì)直到明年之前都將維持在8%以上，但美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)說(shuō)，它不會(huì)再出臺(tái)更多措施來(lái)提振美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)。財(cái)政刺激措施的效應(yīng)正在逐漸減弱。華盛頓目前關(guān)注的焦點(diǎn)是財(cái)政赤字和政府債務(wù)上限。真的無(wú)法再做什么事來(lái)幫助美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇了嗎？

　　One set of physicians, the Keynesians, are sure their medicine worked, but the dosage was insufficient. They prescribe more stimulus, perhaps renewing the payroll-tax holiday that is to expire at year end.

　　一批給美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)診病的凱恩斯主義者確信，他們開的藥已經(jīng)見效，不過(guò)藥物的劑量還不夠。他們建議政府采取更多經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激措施，比如可以考慮延長(zhǎng)工資稅減免期，這一減免本應(yīng)于今年底結(jié)束。

　　Another set, influential among Republicans, is just as sure the medicine didn't work. They prescribe the opposite: Starve the fever--cut spending significantly and soon.

　　而另一批給美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)開藥方的人則確信凱恩斯主義者給的藥沒有見效。這批在共和黨人中很有影響力的人開出了與凱恩斯主義者針鋒相對(duì)的藥方：以毒攻毒──立即大幅削減政府支出。

　　A third set, influenced by professors Kenneth Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart's history of financial crises, says deleveraging is like detox: Painful, takes time and can't be rushed.

　　還有一批人受到肯尼斯•羅格夫（Kenneth Rogoff）和卡門•萊因哈特（Carmen Reinhart）教授金融危機(jī)史的影響，他們認(rèn)為去杠桿化就像是戒毒：痛苦、費(fèi)時(shí)、急不得。

　　To be clear: Like a middle-aged man who needs to exercise, quit smoking and eat fewer French fries, the U.S. government needs to enact now a credible, long-term plan to reduce future budget deficits. Period. But that doesn't mean deficit reduction alone will unleash a surge of growth and hiring.

　　顯然，就像一個(gè)需要鍛煉、戒煙和減少吃炸土豆片的中年男人一樣，美國(guó)政府現(xiàn)在也需要制定出一個(gè)可信的長(zhǎng)期計(jì)劃來(lái)降低未來(lái)的預(yù)算赤字。但這并不意味著僅靠削減赤字就能引發(fā)經(jīng)濟(jì)增速和就業(yè)率的大幅增長(zhǎng)。

　　Remember: The worse the economy, the bigger the deficit. One-percentage-point slower economic growth in 2011 (even if the economy rebounds in 2012) adds nearly $100 billion to the 10-year deficit estimate.

　　請(qǐng)記住：經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)越差，政府赤字就越大。如果2011年的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率減少一個(gè)百分點(diǎn)（即使經(jīng)濟(jì)在2012年出現(xiàn)反彈），美國(guó)未來(lái)10年的財(cái)政赤字預(yù)計(jì)就將因此增加近1,000億美元。

　　References to "political reality" and reminders that "it could have been worse" aren't policy. If the president and Congress want to slip some growth-inducing remedies into the pending deficit deal, what should they examine with an unjaundiced eye?

　　以“政治現(xiàn)實(shí)”為借口或提醒人們（如果不是出臺(tái)了某項(xiàng)政策）“情況可能更糟”都不是解決問(wèn)題之道。如果美國(guó)總統(tǒng)和國(guó)會(huì)想在目前懸而未決的赤字削減協(xié)議中加入可促進(jìn)美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的措施，他們?cè)诓粠姷那疤嵯聭?yīng)該考慮哪些因素呢？

　　--Housing. Home prices have fallen longer and farther than anticipated. A glut of empty or foreclosed homes continues to depress prices, making all American homeowners poorer and refinancing impossible for underwater borrowers.

　　——住房。美國(guó)房?jī)r(jià)下跌的時(shí)間和幅度都已長(zhǎng)于預(yù)期。大量空置或被止贖的住房繼續(xù)打壓著房?jī)r(jià)，使美國(guó)所有的房主都遭遇了財(cái)富縮水，使那些房屋價(jià)值已低于該房未償按揭貸款的房主不可能對(duì)按揭貸款進(jìn)行再融資。

　　At the president's insistence, his staff has examined nearly every untried option, and rejected them all. It's time for a rethink, in light of the persistently sour housing market. Perhaps state-owned enterprises Fannie Mae (FNMA) and Freddie Mae (FMCC) should be deployed to refinance credit-worthy underwater borrowers. Perhaps the federal government should buy foreclosed homes from banks and give them to local governments to fix up and rent.

　　在奧巴馬的堅(jiān)持下，白宮工作人員研究了幾乎所有未試過(guò)的方法，最后都一一否決了。在樓市持續(xù)惡化之際，是該重新想一想的時(shí)候了。或許，國(guó)有企業(yè)房利美(Fannie Mae)和房地美(Freddie Mae)應(yīng)該受命為信用良好但資不抵債的借款人再融資?；蛟S，聯(lián)邦政府應(yīng)該從銀行手里買下止贖的住房，交給地方政府修繕一新、租賃出去。

　　--Hiring. The cycle is clear: Consumers won't spend more because so many are out of work or worried about losing their jobs. But employers won't hire more at home because they are uncertain demand will be there. Tax breaks to give consumers spending money is one approach, but maybe it's time for another: Nudge employers to hire with a tax credit for every worker they add or every extra dollar they spend on payrolls. Yes, it will reward some employers who would have hired otherwise. But 4.4 million Americans have been unemployed for more than a year, their prospects for ever going back to work diminishing. Watchful waiting is costly and cruel.

　　——招聘。周期很清楚：消費(fèi)者不會(huì)花更多的錢，因?yàn)樘嗳艘呀?jīng)失業(yè)或擔(dān)心失業(yè)。然而，雇主不會(huì)在國(guó)內(nèi)雇傭更多的人，因?yàn)樗麄儾淮_定是否會(huì)有需求。實(shí)施減免稅措施以便給消費(fèi)者用于支出的錢，這是一種方法，但現(xiàn)在或許是采取另外一種方法的時(shí)候：激勵(lì)雇主招聘，對(duì)雇傭的每位新員工或工資支出中額外的每一塊錢提供減免稅。不錯(cuò)，這將使一些本來(lái)就打算招聘的雇主揀了便宜。不過(guò)，目前已經(jīng)有440萬(wàn)美國(guó)人失業(yè)一年以上，他們重新找到工作的可能性正在不斷減小。觀望等待不但要付出高昂代價(jià)，也是殘酷無(wú)情的。

　　--Confidence. The only sustainable way to get the economy moving is for business to invest and hire more. Business spending on computers and equipment is up, but S&P 500 companies still have nearly $1 trillion of idle cash. Shoring up business confidence is the cheapest form of stimulus. Moving from rhetoric on exports to passing free-trade pacts would be a plus. So would a bipartisan deal on deficits. And so would appointing and confirming regulators for a growing list of vacancies. Suing Boeing Co. (BA) over where it puts its plants doesn't help.

　　——信心。推動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的唯一可持續(xù)方式是讓企業(yè)更多的投資、更多的招人。企業(yè)在電腦和設(shè)備上的支出在增加，不過(guò)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)成份股公司仍有近1萬(wàn)億美元的閑置資金。提振企業(yè)信心是成本最低的刺激方式。不再大談出口，而是通過(guò)自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定，這將有所幫助。在赤字問(wèn)題上達(dá)成兩黨一致同意的協(xié)議也會(huì)有所幫助。此外，任命和批準(zhǔn)監(jiān)管人員擔(dān)任越來(lái)越多的空缺崗位，這也有好處。不過(guò)，就在何處建廠的問(wèn)題起訴波音公司(Boeing Co.)卻不會(huì)有任何助益。

　　But just because something will make executives feel better doesn't mean it's a good idea. Declaring a tax holiday for repatriating foreign earnings will boost spirits, but isn't likely to add many jobs or much investment, based on academic scrutiny of the 2004 tax holiday. One fact: Of the nearly $1 trillion in cash on S&P 500 companies' books, about 60% is already in the U.S., according to S&P and a new survey by the Association for Financial Professionals. Big business isn't short of cash.

　　不過(guò)，僅僅因?yàn)橛行┦聲?huì)讓高管感覺好一點(diǎn)兒，并不意味著就是好事。對(duì)2004年減稅措施的學(xué)術(shù)研究顯示，宣布對(duì)把海外收益帶回國(guó)實(shí)施減稅措施，這會(huì)振奮精神，但不太可能創(chuàng)造更多的就業(yè)崗位或帶來(lái)更多的投資。有一個(gè)事實(shí)是：據(jù)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾的數(shù)據(jù)和美國(guó)財(cái)資管理專業(yè)人士協(xié)會(huì)(Association for Financial Professionals)進(jìn)行的一項(xiàng)新的調(diào)查顯示，標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)成份股公司帳面上的近1萬(wàn)億美元閑置資金，約60%已經(jīng)在美國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)。大企業(yè)并不缺錢。

　　--Infrastructure. The initial Obama stimulus was flawed in design and poorly explained. Shovel-ready projects weren't so shovel-ready, as the president has noted. But the federal government can borrow at below 3%, construction workers are idle, and many U.S. roads, subways and airports seem Third World-like compared with China's new ones. How about a quick round of government-funded infrastructure maintenance, putting some unemployed to work today on chores we'll have to do someday anyhow?

　　——基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施。奧巴馬政府最初的刺激措施在設(shè)計(jì)上存在缺陷，解釋得也不清楚。正如奧巴馬所指出的，已經(jīng)準(zhǔn)備動(dòng)工的項(xiàng)目實(shí)際上并沒有準(zhǔn)備好。不過(guò)，鑒于聯(lián)邦政府可以以不到3%的利率借款，建筑工人無(wú)事可做，與中國(guó)嶄新的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施相比，美國(guó)很多的公路、地鐵和機(jī)場(chǎng)看起來(lái)就像是第三世界國(guó)家的一樣，那么由政府提供資金迅速地來(lái)一輪基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施維護(hù)、現(xiàn)在就讓一些失業(yè)者做一些我們?cè)缤硇枰龅氖虑?，這個(gè)方法怎么樣？

　　When times are tough, resignation isn't usually the American way. Why should it be now?

　　在困難時(shí)期，聽天由命通常并非美國(guó)的做法。那么現(xiàn)在為什么要聽天由命呢？