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Airbus and Boeing’s high hopes for Chinese aircraft demand were on display at the Beijing air show this week but the ambitions of a homegrown upstart foreshadowed a tough fight for market share in the world’s most important battleground for plane manufacturers.
在上周舉行的北京航空展上,空客(Airbus)和波音(Boeing)對中國需求寄予的厚望得到彰顯,但中國一家本土飛機(jī)制造商的抱負(fù)預(yù)示著,飛機(jī)制造商們將為了爭奪這個全球最重要市場的份額展開激烈競爭。
Their forecasts were consistent in depicting China as the biggest purchaser by far of new aircraft over the coming two decades, spurred by twin booms in the country’s business and leisure travel.
飛機(jī)制造商們的預(yù)測相當(dāng)一致,他們認(rèn)為,受商務(wù)和休閑旅游共同繁榮的推動,在未來二十年里中國將是新飛機(jī)的最大買家。
Boeing said China would add 5,000 commercial aircraft worth $600bn by 2030, while Airbus said the country would need more than 4,000.
波音表示,到2030年,中國將會再購買5000架總價值6000億美元的商務(wù)飛機(jī),而空客表示,中國將需要逾4000架飛機(jī)。
The Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (Comac), the government-owned manufacturer, predicted the total would be 4,684, giving the country 15 percent of the total global aircraft fleet, up from 9 percent now.
中國國有制造商——中國商用飛機(jī)公司(Comac)預(yù)計需求總數(shù)將達(dá)到4684架,這將讓中國的飛機(jī)數(shù)量占到全球總數(shù)的15%,高于目前9%的比例。
Boeing, the current leader in China, wants to maintain a market share of a little more than 50 percent over the next 20 years and Airbus hopes to increase its portion above 50 percent.
目前在中國市場上占據(jù)主導(dǎo)地位的波音公司希望在未來20年保持略高于50%的市場份額,而空客則希望將其份額提高至50%以上。
But Comac, which has yet to deliver a single aircraft, has set its sights on grabbing one-third of the domestic market in the next two decades.
但迄今一架飛機(jī)也未交付的中國商飛公司的目標(biāo)則是在未來20年搶占三分之一的國內(nèi)市場份額。
Initially at least, Comac’s ambitious goal will not bring it into direct competition with Airbus and Boeing. Its first aircraft, the 90-seater ARJ21 regional jet, should go into service next year.
中國商飛雄心勃勃的目標(biāo)至少在一開始不會讓它直接與空客和波音發(fā)生競爭。該公司研制的首架飛機(jī)——90座的ARJ21支線飛機(jī)——應(yīng)該在明年交付。
The world’s two biggest aircraft manufacturers do not compete in this market segment, which is dominated by Canada’s Bombardier and Brazil’s Embraer, and is served by jets capable of carrying between 60 to 100 passengers.
全球兩大飛機(jī)制造巨頭不會在上述市場領(lǐng)域競爭。主導(dǎo)該市場領(lǐng)域的是加拿大的龐巴迪公司(Bombardier)和巴西航空工業(yè)公司(Embraer),主要產(chǎn)品是能夠搭載60人至100人的飛機(jī)。
“Most of the airports that China will open in the next decade will be in smaller cities and this will create more flight routes for the ARJ21,” said Tian Min, a Comac official.
中國商飛高管田民表示:“中國未來10年將啟用的機(jī)場大部分位于較小城市,這將為ARJ21創(chuàng)造更多的飛行線路。”
But the real prize in China is the market for larger single-aisle jets. Typically served by 150-seat aircraft, it will account for 71 percent of total aeroplane deliveries in China by 2030, Boeing forecast.
但中國真正的亮點是較大的單通道飛機(jī)市場,通常為150座的飛機(jī)。波音預(yù)計,到2030年,這部分市場將占到中國交付飛機(jī)總數(shù)的71%。
Comac’s offering in this market, the C919, is still at least two years from its maiden flight, but has benefited from the national prestige that the government has invested with the objective of breaking the Airbus-Boeing duopoly.
中國商飛為這一市場研制的C919飛機(jī)距離首飛至少還需要兩年時間,但該機(jī)型是中國政府旨在打破空客和波音的雙頭壟斷、樹立國際威望而展開的投資的受益者。
Comac has received 100 order commitments for the C919, mostly from domestic state-owned airlines, and it is hoping to announce about 50 more next month.
中國商飛迄今已經(jīng)收到了100架C919飛機(jī)的承諾訂單,大多數(shù)來自國內(nèi)的國有航空公司。商飛的希望是下月還將宣布約50架飛機(jī)的訂單。
“The way this market works, they [Comac] will eat into everyone’s share,” said Ihssane Mounir, a senior vice-president with Boeing. “But we are not worried about competition. Competition is the mother of all improvements.”
波音高級副總裁毛藝山(Ihssane Mounir)表示:“按照中國市場的運作方式,它們(中國商飛)會侵蝕所有人的份額。但我們不擔(dān)心競爭。競爭是進(jìn)步之母。”
Comac has been slow out of the blocks. Mr Tian said there would be no deliveries this year of the ARJ21, which is at least three years behind schedule. Industry analysts say the slow introduction of the regional jet could push back the completion of the C919.
中國商飛起步緩慢。田民表示,今年不會交付ARJ21——這已經(jīng)至少比原計劃推遲了3年。行業(yè)分析師表示,ARJ21支線飛機(jī)交付緩慢可能導(dǎo)致C919項目完成延期。
Airbus and Boeing were able to tout minor victories for their next generation of aircraft at the Beijing show.
空客和波音得以在北京國際航空展上炫耀自己的下一代飛機(jī)取得的小小勝利。
Boeing has not sold any of its 787 Dreamliner long-haul jets to Chinese customers since 60 orders were placed in 2005 but Mr Mounir said that discussions were progressing and could lead to more deals soon.
自2005年簽訂60架787夢幻長途客機(jī)(787 Dreamliner)的協(xié)議以來,波音沒有再向中國客戶售出一架787客機(jī),但毛藝山表示,談判正取得進(jìn)展,可能很快就會簽署更多協(xié)議。
Airbus received a boost when China Southern Airlines announced that it would take delivery of the country’s first A380 superjumbo jet on October 15 and put it into domestic service two days later.
中國南方航空(China Southern Airlines)宣布將于今年10月15日接受中國首架A380“巨無霸”飛機(jī)的交付,并在兩天后用于國內(nèi)航線服務(wù),這對空客是一個很好的宣傳。
In trying to catch up with Boeing in China, Airbus has followed a strategy of localising its operations to a certain extent, assembling A320 aircraft in the northeastern city of Tianjin. Boeing has chosen not to make planes in China, though it notes that it has been the biggest purchaser of made-in-China aviation parts.
為了在中國市場趕上波音,空客采用了在一定程度上本土化業(yè)務(wù)的戰(zhàn)略,在天津組裝A320飛機(jī)。波音沒有選擇在中國制造飛機(jī),不過它指出,該公司一直是中國制造的飛機(jī)部件的最大買家。
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